tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post2768513630981946480..comments2023-11-12T00:30:15.262+09:00Comments on Monster Island (actually a peninsula)*: Sucks to be Kimkushibohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10306033998028548550noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post-47829420820647524572010-05-18T12:20:03.247+09:002010-05-18T12:20:03.247+09:00Whatever happens, I'm not entirely sure that w...Whatever happens, I'm not entirely sure that we'll know about it as part of the general public. North Korea is trying to show its power and Seoul is trying to calm things, but what really matter is what goes on behind closed doors. <br /><br />You raise an interesting point about Russia - I always forget to include them in my considerations of the whole issue. I'm fairly well versed on Russian history prior to 1989, but I really don't know where they stand now. <br /><br />I do think, however, that Kim Jong-il is creating a fuss (as usual) for the purpose of drawing aid. In public, the South and America will come out and declare sanctions and whatnot, but I really think that behind closed doors they'll be doing whatever it takes to keep Kim quiet. Kim's childishness could cost South Korea a lot of money. A LOT. A few million in his private bank account would be nothing compared to the losses Seoul would make if the North continune their provocations.DSWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11535908226479922492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post-11122753021245709522010-05-18T02:31:46.330+09:002010-05-18T02:31:46.330+09:00KRD, North Korea could do as you suggest — soften ...KRD, North Korea could do as you suggest — soften their stance (or appear to do so) and shoot for more aid — but the justification of the elite's entire existence depends on being in conflict with some outside power (hence the ham-handed 1984 reference). <br /><br />That means, I think, that they cannot soften their stance too much. Pyongyang could easily return to their Cold War ways whereby they play Pyongyang and Moscow off each other. <br /><br />It's rather convenient for Pyongyang that Moscow is only a pretend democracy right now, and because of its own nationalistic narrative (in the face of losing prestige and dropping in stature) it is willing to behave like a totalitarian dictatorship again. If North Korea can find something it has that Russia wants, it simply has to shift its focus from Beijing to Moscow and, voilà, it has found a new sponsor. <br /><br />This would let Beijing off the hook in terms of North Korea's bad behavior (as long as no fallout affected any of China's interests directly) while maintaining a physical buffer against the US and South Korea. <br /><br />Seriously, it is clearer and clearer that the Cold War has never been over on the Korean Peninsula: all the same players are in their original corners.<br /><br />At any rate, I don't think President Lee is going to shift any money to North Korea. I think he's itching for a chance for a pounding on North Korea that's below the threshold of inviting a major strike back at South Korea.kushibohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10306033998028548550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post-91824311092927255622010-05-18T02:22:19.545+09:002010-05-18T02:22:19.545+09:00Matt, while the interlocking economies is a major ...Matt, while the interlocking economies is a major factor in China's behavior (heck, in the behavior of most any country whose economy is so dependent on trade), China is also motivated by a long-running, deep-seated need to protect its homeland with a buffer zone it controls. Look at the territory where Han Chinese are indigenous and compare that with the territory of the PRC. Even Manchuria, right on Korea's doorstep, was not Han Chinese. <br /><br />This buffer maintenance is an overriding factor, up to the point where the buffer itself is stable. Torpedoing the <i>Chonan</i> may be an intolerable sign of instability on the part of that buffer, and that's what Beijing is trying to figure out.kushibohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10306033998028548550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post-58703259077323611442010-05-17T22:25:32.154+09:002010-05-17T22:25:32.154+09:00It looks like the Chinese are giving up on North K...It looks like the Chinese are giving up on North Korea... In which case one would expect the Norks to soften their stance a little and shoot for more aid. But of course, they've been conditioned to think that positive results come from provocative actions. I wouldn't be surprised if South Korea took a hardline stance in public, whilst shifting more money to the Norks in secret - in order to stop these little pushes and shouts from Kim & co. That sort of thing has kept the peace in other parts of the world, and it's probably what the Norks are aiming for.DSWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11535908226479922492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3869680.post-48931616300803550102010-05-17T20:31:39.000+09:002010-05-17T20:31:39.000+09:00Given that the American and Chinese economies are ...Given that the American and Chinese economies are so interlocked, wouldn't it make more sense for the Chinese government to stop supporting the Norks? Do Cold War alliances really run that deep in the 21st century?Rodney from Pilsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12762871849117479882noreply@blogger.com