Barbara Demick on PBS Newshour talking about guess what

I like Barbara Demick. I've met her on several occasions before, and I'd say she's a person who knows she doesn't know everything, doesn't have the arrogance to think she ever will, but then goes and tries to do whatever she can to know everything anyway. She is an asset to our understanding of North Korea and of China.

So I was happy to see on my iPhone that she was a guest on PBS's Newshour (they just created a nifty little app that allows you to watch various segments which I currently just listen to on my iPod while I jog run). Here's the video:



Her fellow guest, Kongdan "Katy" Oh of the Institute for Defense Analyses was also good, and she expressed the same line that much of the media has been presenting us, that "appointing [Kim Jong-un] as general at the same time the vice chairman of the party central committee, basically, it's crystal clear that Kim Jong-il has anointed him to be his successor."

Not so fast, says Barbara Demick, echoing the "not so fast" sentiments of Kushibo. Nothing is a done deal and we shouldn't treat it as such:

And something that I have been hearing in China -- I'm based in Beijing -- is that, even in North Korea, there are some rules for legitimacy. Within the party, one needs to establish credibility and presence. So, I wouldn't say he's the successor. I would say he's daddy's favorite.

And she's not afraid to proclaim her ignorance:

MARGARET WARNER: Barbara, is there no rival power center? In other words, the fact that this son was given military appointments, does that mean the military is behind this and the elites are behind this?

BARBARA DEMICK: Boy, I hate to say this on television, but I don't know. And I don't...

MARGARET WARNER: That's actually a very refreshing answer.

Indeed it is. The fact is, nobody really knows what's going on up there. Hell, even Kim Jong-il, his sister, his son, and his daughter don't really know how this is all going to turn out.

Yet we have a bunch of journalists and analysts who are talking as if this is all a done deal not because they've analyzed everything and exhaustively come to the conclusion that Kim Jong-un will be the unrivaled future head-of-state at some day in the near future when Kim Jong-il kicks the bucket, but because, when confronted with a deadline or a microphone, everyone else is saying that and that makes it a safe bet.

If it turns out you're wrong about that, then you can claim, "Well, it's really hard to read the tea leaves for North Korea," and appeal by reminding viewers, readers, or listeners that, "Everyone else got that ascension thing wrong, too."

Well, everyone except me and Barb.

But if I had to guess right now, I'd guess that (a) Chinese-style reforms are on the way regardless who is in power, and (b) Kim Jong-un will never see the power his father has; he will either never rise up much further than he is now because of internal opposition, or he will be placed up there as a mere figurehead, à la a constitutional monarch. Alternatively, it's possible one of his siblings (my vote is on the highly capable Kim Sŏlsong) will be elevated in his stead as a compromise with those who feel Kim Jong-un is too young, too inexperienced, and too unpredictable.

Caveat to all this: I don't know either.

Picture of the Day

North Korean soldiers in Pyongyang break the Guinness World Record for largest human foosball match attend event to congratulate Dear Leader Kim Jong-il on re-election as Secretary-General. [source]

Still no sign of Kim Jong-un, either in the portraits or the banners. Or anywhere, so far.

As I've said before, the assumed coronation of the Brilliant Comrade, even if it is the intent of Kim Jong-il and he gets his way in the on-going Workers Party of Korea conference, is far from a done deal. I wouldn't want to be KJU's official food taster after KJI dies.

[UPDATED] KCNA coverage of the historic Workers' Party of Korea conference in Pyongyang

If you were expecting a Florida-style nail-biter, too bad. Kim Jong-il has been re-elected General-Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea unanimously. The rest of the Secretariat of the WPK Central Committee is here.

[UPDATE: This story, which was apparently missing when I first looked at the list of news articles, gives a litany of the Central Military Commission of the WPK. While Kim Jong-il is still the Chairman, the position from which he gets his authority and power, you'll notice that the second name listed is Kim Jong-un, who has been promoted to Vice Chairman of the Commission, along with Ri Yongho. As AsiaOneNews notes, "Jong-Un's postion as vice-chairman of the military commission places him right below his father and above everybody else in the military." Well, everyone except Ri Yongho, who "has close ties with Kim Jong-il and Jang Songtaek," according to North Korea Leadership Watch.]

Other notable articles:

• This story gives an actual item-by-item accounting of how the conference went.

• This is the Big List of members and alternate members (in case the members get shot, I guess) of the WPK Central Committee. I can't believe Ri Kŏnu* didn't make it. 

• Members and alternate members of the elite WPK Central Committee's Political Bureau are listed here. Kim Jong-il and his sister, the newly minted four-star general Kim Kyŏnghŭi, are listed as members. Jang Songtaek, General Kim's husband and the presumed regent of Kim Jong-un should he be chosen to lead the country after his father's demise, was chosen as an alternate. KJU is not on the list. The Presidium of the Political Bureau, headed by the Dear Leader (is there nothing he can't do?), is listed here. 

• The play-by-play of the above-mentioned Central Committee's plebum can be found here. It has all the excitements of the minutes of a local elementary school PTA information, but with less useful information.

• Here are the members of the WPK Central Auditing Commission. A Control Commission was also elected.

• This story talks about revisions of rules for the WPK, but without saying what those rules changes were. But it has something to do with strengthening the party.

• The British communists dropped by for a visit. Maybe they met with Democratic New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's aide, Tony Namgoong, since the Democrats are, by definition, socialist. I know it's true because I heard it on Fox News.

* I made that guy up. Don't bother Googling.