Sorry, Mr Kim. We've decided to go with the dead guy.

I've been meaning to write a post highlighting this story from NPR which asks if North Korea is changing or resisting change, but that will have to wait, because the big story is Kim Jong-un's job promotion.

Although I still hold out that there is considerable factionalism in the Pyongyang regime and that some of those coteries (Koteries?) are none too happy that a wholly inexperienced kid of twenty-nine has become the new Nepot Despot, there are clear signs that, outwardly at least, KJU's hold on power is solidifying.

What KJU lacks in congeniality he makes up for in congealment of power.

Of course, it helps when your political patrons behind the scenes are executing your would-be rivals right and left. Still, just as the Great Currency Obliteration of 2009 likely turned entire classes of people against the regime that they no longer saw as on their side, the killing of so many of the elite may give opponents a sense that they must kill or be killed. Or something like that. Since I don't know which faction is more likely to allow openness and reform, I'm not sure for whom to root.

Anyway, Kim Jong-un's position appears to have strengthened with his new title:

Kim Jong Un was named first secretary of the ruling Workers' Party, a new post, while his late father, longtime leader Kim Jong Il, was given the posthumous title of "eternal general secretary" at a special Workers' Party conference, the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.

Kim Jong Un's formal ascension, nearly four months after the death of his father, comes during a week of events leading up to celebrations Sunday marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, late President Kim Il Sung.

The centennial is a major milestone in the nation Kim Il Sung founded in 1948, and the streets were awash with new posters, banners and the national flag. Outside the city's war museum and the Pyongyang Indoor Stadium, women in traditional Korean dress gathered in clusters, practicing for this week's events.

Still, I think it's notable that he still has not been granted all the trappings of power that his father or grandfather had. I mean, he should have been named General Secretary, instead of giving his father that significant title in the form of an "eternal" position (Kim Ilsung is eternal president).

That's not just a blow to the ego, it's also a precarious situation. What does the First Secretary do that a General Secretary does (or does not)? Just as he was made a mere vice chairman of the Central Military Commission before his father's death, this is a half measure (or three-quarters) that may reflect a lack of solid backing.

(I think the point I'm making is even starker if you look through the KCNA website: all over the place, Kim Jong-il is the ch'ong pisŏ [총비서], as in ultimate secretary, whereas Kim Jong-un is merely che-il pisŏ [제1비서], as in the first secretary after the chief secretary, sort of like first runner-up in a beauty contest.)

Sure, he was made Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army a couple weeks after his daddy died, but it's not entirely clear how much power that affords him either.

Baby steps for the baby general.

Anyway, with the hope that the Western-educated Kim Jong-un might actually be a Gorbachev or a Deng Xiaoping in wolf's clothing, maybe a shoring up of support could be the best thing for North Korea in the long run. (I still think one could make a convincing case that Kim Jong-il himself may have been a mere figurehead.)

...

Former spy claims Kim Jong-il killed by drug-resistance STD from poisoned sushi

I'm not entirely convinced but this is plausible.

...

Kim Jong-il looking at things

looking at glass his eyelids

... 

Has North Korea actually done double the number of tests we've thought?

That's the suggestion being made in Nature, based on isotope readings found around the region:

North Korea may have conducted two covert nuclear weapons tests in 2010, according to a fresh analysis of radioisotope data.

The claim has drawn scepticism from some nuclear-weapons experts. But if confirmed, the analysis would double the number of tests the country is known to have conducted and suggest that North Korea is trying to develop powerful warheads for its fledgling nuclear arsenal.

It might also explain a bizarre statement issued by North Korea's state news agency in May 2010, which said that the country had achieved nuclear fusion. The news was largely ridiculed in the South Korean and Western media — but it was not so quickly dismissed by the small circle of experts who devote their careers to identifying covert nuclear tests. South Korean scientists had detected a whiff of radioactive xenon at around that time, hinting at nuclear activity in its northern neighbour, which had already tested nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009.

While I'm not terribly happy they're developing nuclear fusion, I'm pleased as punch they're depleting their nuclear arsenal through repeated nuclear tests. In fact, in the past, I have advised Western powers to mock them into eliminating their entire stockpile in this manner:

North Korea's preparing for a third nuclear test, supposedly. And I say let 'em! Then taunt them that we thought that was just a bunch of TNT detonated in a mine shaft, so they'll detonate another one to prove us wrong. Lather, rinse, repeat, and eventually all their nukes will be gone. I should be president.

That is, of course, why I keep getting passed over for Assistant Secretary of State of Northeast Asian Affairs.

...

Planking

 Planking WIN.

Planking FAIL.

Planking WIN. (But Juche-year numbering FAIL.)

...

Death to US Imperialist Wolves and Happy Hanukkah

30 Rock is back. And while its season premiere, occurring in January to accommodate Tina Fey's pregnancy, was not the most gut-wrenchingly hilarious episode ever, it did have some laugh-out-loud moments that had me frightening the cat.

But why am I talking about it here, on this blog dedicated to ROK-related news, Korean cultural issues, and gripes about what kinetic balls of narcissism my nephews and nieces are? There is indeed a Korean connection: You may recall last spring that the season finale had comedienne Margaret Cho, a favorite among the gay for her gender ambiguity, playing Kim Jong-il.

When we left things off, the Dear Leader had just kidnapped the wife of Jack Donaghy (played by Words With Friends aficionado Alec Baldwin). Well, it seems that Margaret Cho has lost what could have been a  lucrative gig when the Dear Leader joined the Great Gulag and Re-Education Camp in the sky ground.

I feel ya, Margaret Cho (in the figurative, empathetic sense only). Kim Jong-il's death has cost me several hundred dollars as well, in the form of a weaker South Korean currency. This was the natural result of fears of political instability on the Korean Peninsula, worries about rogue nukes going a missin', a sudden dearth of jokes on late night television, and the permanent shelving of plans for a sequel to Team America: World Police.

(Indeed, the KRW is a very sensitive currency, which tends to fall precipitously whenever there is bad news in South Korea, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Africa, South Central Los Angeles, or either of the Dakotas. I've already sold short in anticipation of whatever will happen during the South Carolina primary. And no, I'm not exaggerating. We have recently seen the Korean won plunge on a daily basis due to the Euro-zone not getting its act together, the Moody Blues' credit downgrade of the United States, and either Nicolas Sarkozy or Silvio Berlusconi getting an erection lasting for more than four hours. Joe Biden sneezing would cost me at least fifty bucks right now.)

Um, anyway, in lieu of Kim Jong-il, the writers brought in Kim Jong-un, a man-child whose name is apparently even harder to pronounce than his father's. I have not yet finished watching the episode, however, so all I can do is say, "Hmm, this would be a good time to mention any one of my posts on famous non-Koreans wearing hanbok" (the latter is a lot funnier if you're as drunk as I was when I wrote it).

UPDATE:
I finally watched the entire episode and, as I suspected, the brief mention of the Ling-and-Lee-esque detainment of Jack Donaghy's wife in North Korea did not go beyond the above sight gag. I'm guessing they plan to make her "rescue" a bigger focus later, and thus will drag this out a bit while Rachel McAdams Elizabeth Banks (who plays Mrs Donaghy) finishes up a few projects.

...

Dear Dead Leader

ORIGINAL POST BY iPHONE:
Holy crap! It's a Christmakkuh miracle! I turn on my phone after a six-hour flight to California, and my inbox is flooded with news reports and private emails informing me that Kim Jong-il is dead, and why haven't I written anything about it.

I'll write more on this when I get settled, but I'm guessing in the next days or weeks we will find out if Kim Jong-ŭn really is (or is not) The Kim Who Wasn't There™.

(from here and here)

UPDATED (TWO HOURS LATER):
Wow. Where to begin. I guess if you want the latest news, you can go to the Los Angeles Times or perhaps The Marmot's Hole. Everyone is asking what will happen next. The answer is, beyond Kim Jong-il receiving some sort of unending torture in an inner circle of Hell, no one really knows.

Right now, everyone is looking at Kim Jong-ŭn. And Kim Jong-ŭn is crapping his pants. He's not even thirty and he's supposedly been tapped to lead the country. Right.

If you don't already know how I feel, read this and follow the links that tell you all about The Kim Who Wasn't There. Although The Marmot's Hole is reporting that Kim Jong-ŭn was "named... as his father’s successor," I'll believe it when I see it.

Before I go any further, let me tell you of two posts I was working on but was waiting until vacation (which began today) to write. Bear in mind, they are going to make me sound very, very nutty. The first was going to be a follow-up to my original "The Kim Who Wasn't There" post, basically a similar analysis of how much the KCNA (North Korea's central news agency) actually mentions Kim Jong-ŭn, which is not much. I was timing the analysis for the week around the first anniversary of him being named co-chair of whatever committee it is that he's pretending to run.

The second was a bit more out of left field. I was actually sitting down to analyze how much Kim Jong-il travels to give guidance and how much that keeps him away from Pyongyang. I was doing this in order to suggest that — get ready for this — Kim Jong-il might be a mere figurehead himself. Wow, wouldn't that ever be a trip (literally and figuratively)?

Some, of course, might think that really it was one of the KJI doppelgänger doing all the guidance, but I was starting to wonder if KJI really had all the power we have supposed he did. After all, the guy apparently nearly died from a stroke two or three years ago, and then went through a long recovery. Just who the hell was his Edith Wilson, if he had one at all? Maybe, just maybe, the ruling generals or nappŭn nomenklatura (see how I did that?) sorta got together and formed a junta or an oligarchy or something.

And where would that leave supposed designated heir Kim Jong-ŭn? Maybe they really do need a figurehead. Maybe they need a uniting force and a source of legitimacy. Maybe they have decided that Kim Jong-il's only son who is not crazy or possibly gay but is a team player must be the figurehead.

And if that's true, then my speculation that Kim Jong-ŭn would end up wielding no real power is still true. Not that he (or his supporting faction) wouldn't try. But just what can a figurehead do? I have wondered aloud if Kim Jong-un could possibly be North Korea's Gorbachev. Maybe the English-speaking, Swiss-educated KJU might just have some ideas of his own about opening up the country, and even his nominal power might be just enough to nudge the regime in that direction.

It all comes down to China.
But ultimately, whether or not Kim Jong-un will be in power as a figurehead, a leader with real power, or none at all, will depend on China. In the past, I and others have spoken about the ominous prospect of China working to turn North Korea into Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Prefecture. China has a great deal of control over the DPRK and it does not want to relinquish it. It certainly does not want the Koreans to unify and have a US military presence at its backdoor.

And so China has been doing whatever it can to prop up the North Korean government. They started doing this during the Korean War and they've been doing it since. But lately they themselves have found the Pyongyang regime belligerent and unwieldy, even an embarrassment to Beijing. And don't think for a minute that China wouldn't give their blessing to even a transfer of power to a figurehead unless they had assurances that the post-KJI North Korea would be better behaved.

And here is where I'm actually kinda sorta glad that China is holding the reins (at least for the time being), because China has been prodding North Korea to follow a path similar to Deng-era China, and to integrate North Korea (economically at least) with China's northeastern provinces (i.e., a process I call the Manchurianization of North Korea).

North Korea has been opening in ways thought unimaginable just a few years ago. North Korea has brought in cell phone service, eventually becoming the world's fastest growing mobile market (more posts here and here). News reports said recently that they topped 1 million (in a country of about 22 million).

There are also things like Western-style coffee shops, television commercials for beer, and other trappings of the West as seen through Chinese eyes. In other words, China has lately been trying very hard to re-make North Korea in its own image.

And just what does all that mean? China does not allow a whole lot of dissent. Two decades after Tianamen Square, China is still authoritarian. And if North Korea follows a Dengesque path, you should expect North Korea to also be authoritarian as long as China is. Unless...

What if North Korea goes off China's game plan?
The only thing that could change the trajectory of North Korea being pulled toward Deng-era reforms that would bring it closer and closer to China would be unification. The question now is whether that can happen or not. The generals and the politicos in North Korea have no interest in giving up their own power and possibly risking arrest, imprisonment, and even execution which might result if North Korea allowed itself to be absorbed by a democratic South Korea. (I think there's a way to convince them while keeping that in mind, but that's another post for another time.)

But what if there is an uprising? What if Kim Jong-un just isn't cutting it as a figurehead or a real leader? What if the people have caught a whiff of the jasmine revolution and think now is as good a time as any to make a real change? Don't forget that in 2009 the regime dealt a body blow to almost everyone in the country — including many who had once felt quite loyal — with the Great Currency Obliteration. That has been, I believe, a real game changer in people's attitudes toward the regime, a moment where they suddenly realized, "These people aren't on my side."

Kim Jong-il died at a time when there are already food shortages, and the bitter winter will only make it worse. This is a precarious time to be changing leadership. Beijing itself may not be able to control what results. The biggest thing they have going their way, however, is that much of the population lives in rural pockets that are kept from communicating with each other. If there is a North Korean Spring, à la the Arab world, it will only be because of some very diligent people risking their lives to bring the message to the masses wherever they are.

So, in conclusion, with 3.5 hours of sleep and having just come off six hours of flying, these are my thoughts. I still think Kim Jong-un's faction does not have his power solidified, and I think there's a good chance he will either be squeezed out or allowed to be merely a figurehead. China will continue to push for reforms that make North Korea more like Deng-era China, but a popular uprising could easily thwart their plans to integrate the DPRK more with the Northeastern Provinces.

What would a North Korean spring look like? How would China react? Could we get China to back off a bit by (a) agreeing to keep their port facilities at Rajin and (b) promising that the US military will not be stationed in any territory that had been the Democratic People's Republic of Korea?

So much to think about. And I'll probably rewrite a lot of this in the morning.

UPDATE FROM THE NEXT MORNING:
Before I start, I'd like to add a few links to other blogs, who are as interested in this story as I. Make no mistake: this is the biggest story of the year and, depending on how things go, possibly the decade. So here are links from the biggies that cover North Korea regularly: One Free Korea, and Daily NK (which is like a news service, so just go there and see all the KJI-related articles).

I will forgive Asiapundit brazenly linking to themselves, just because that's something I would do, too, so go to this link and read the Marmot's Hole-worthy post they put up (frankly, others doing that meant I didn't have to, and I could thus concentrate on my theses about what might happen in the future — hint: the answer is likely to involve continued Manchurianization). Roboseyo has some thoughts. If you know of any others I've missed, please feel free to provide them in the comments.

And soon we'll start hearing from the experts on North Korea, as well as the pundits who liken themselves as experts on North Korea. And then we'll have a new round of blog posts on people talking about how North Korea expert Selig Harrison is nucking futs (and possibly on the take?).

Now for a couple things I forgot to mention in my bleary-eyed post from last night.

First, a huge dollop of honesty: I may not know what the fudge I'm talking about. Nobody does. And five, ten years from now, a lot of us will consider ourselves lucky if no one was keeping score.

Some honest punditry.
But here's where I get a little more honest: I was completely wrong about what would happen with North Korea back when the elder Kim died, and if only I'd been blogging in the mid-1990s, you'd know that.

See, I've been a news junkie ever since late elementary school, when I delivered newspapers. And that plus our own connection to Korea meant my young self would follow news on North Korea long before Kim Il-sung kicked the bucket in 1994.

And I was confident back then that Kim Il-sung — who at that point had ruled the country for four decades — was the only thing in the way of unification. So my late teen self actually bet someone fifty dollars (where was my late teen self getting that kinda money? ) that within five years of the Great Leader's Death, the two Koreas would be unified.

How's that prediction working out for you, late teen kushibo? (Good thing the person I bet kinda forgot; for a teen, that was Romney betting money.)

And so this is just me being honest. I was optimistic and perhaps naïve, but the thing is we all were. But there were so many things we didn't account for, such as Kim Jong-il's own ruthlessness (seriously, the guy looked like some sort of fat Korean Bill Gates, and who could imagine Bill Gates being evil?), and China's own willingness to support evil in order to maintain a satellite state (we thought they got that out of their system in 1950).

So now maybe we're overcompensating. We think North Korea's "leadership" doesn't have the capacity to move beyond dynastic dictatorship, and we worry that North Korea's people can't do anything but cower in fear. And we now understand that China will do whatever it can to ensure that North Korea doesn't become part of the string of pearls the United States intends to use as a choker.

But are we overcompensating too much? (By definition, any overcompensation is too much.) Is North Korea something that even Beijing cannot tame enough to use for their purposes?

A bulimic state cannot stand?
And that leads me to the other thing I forgot to mention last night: the purges. Right now on Capitol Hill in the US, we've got the leaders of Freddie and Fannie up there talking about charges that they'd misled the public. Now imagine that they were in fear that they would be taken out back and shot, and their families rounded up. That's what happened with the guy who was the scapegoat for the botched currency reform.

And that's just one example. You move way up the ladder, having been noticed for your competence but patiently and obsequiously playing the sycophant, and then you risk losing it all on a whim to a bullet through the skull when you piss off the wrong person.

"I can't work under these conditions!" is what you want to scream, but that's a guaranteed trip to the salt mines. So maybe you just wait, bide your time, until the old man's son is dead, and then we'll retake the asylum and set things right. Right? Right?

Notice a resemblance?

I mean, we don't want to have to wait until the son of the old man's son is also dead, do we? Junior the First, if he really was in charge, was only interested in selling off the country and buying coke. Sure, he kept all of us in Pyongyang living large, but we were always living in fear of the boom coming down. Maybe if we get rid of his son, we can actually move toward being a normal country where we are still the elite. Right?

They've just got to be thinking that way up there. I mean, Junior Junior has no real knowledge of how to run a country. He's weak, and possibly as whimsical as his dad, and that's a recipe for disaster, right? Best to off the kid — or put him in a figurehead role — and move on. But will the powerful Kim Jongsuk (his aunt) allow for that? Maybe we need to wait for her to croak.

So what I'm getting at is that the generals and the top bureaucrats have a deeply personal incentive to not stick with the status quo. And that could upend whatever plans China has (or maybe bolster them, depending on China's plans and how they feel about Round 3 of a Kim Dynasty).

Okay, I'm starting to blab again. So many thoughts in my brain right now, and I need some breakfast.

(And say what you will, but the flood of tears for the Dear Leader that will be seen on video clip after video clip, some of them from deep human emotion and some of them crocodile, were exactly what happened when the Great Leader seventeen years ago. Do not be alarmed, do not be shocked, do not adjust your set.)

...

The reports of KJI's death have been greatly exaggerated

The Chosun Ilbo is reporting that rumors tweeted and retweeted through Twitter, saying that North Korea's Dear Leader had died, sent a shockwave through South Korea's stock market, "driving share prices down and causing the won to plunge against the U.S. dollar." Though it had been steady all day, the KOSPI eventually dropped 0.8 percent after 2:20 when the rumors spread, and the steadily strengthening won dropped W4.1 to close at W1121 to the dollar.

Clearly my evil plan is working. Next week: rabid monkeys invade the port in Rasŏn, shutting it down completely. Get your Twitter thumbs ready.

Seriously, though, don't believe rumors Kim Jong-il is dead. He just... won't... die.

...

Put them all together they spell Mofo

I used to be a huge fan of The Simpsons, but somewhere around the tenth year or so it really lost its way. After several years wandering in the wilderness, it has returned from the abyss, though it still has not reached the lofty heights of satire and wit of its heyday in the 1990s.

Nevertheless, The Simpsons Movie was well done (I half suspect they were saving their best material for the film) and it still occasionally makes me laugh out loud or remark on its cleverness. I don't watch it as religiously as I once did, but I still try to catch it.

Yeah, yeah. Kushibo needs to stop explaining what he watches and why (PBS's Newshour: your best bet for comprehensive and objective news coverage in America). Anyway, my point (and yes, I do have one), is that in the season opener, "The Falcon and the D'Ohman," The Simpsons had their guest flashbacking (it's a word now!) to when he was forced to write musicals praising the Dear Leader.

The flashback includes the opening of the musical, which starts with a young and vibrant Kim Jong-il (not sure how back the flashback flashes) getting off a bus in Pyongyang on his way to the palace, where a bystander tells him he's too benevolent to be the leader (said bystander is now making eel wallets for export in an undisclosed camp in North Hamgyŏng Province).

But Dear Leader-to-be proves he is by no means too benevolent, as he presents a chorus to sing his praises, as it were. To the theme of "M-O-T-H-E-R (A Word That Means the World To Me)," here are the lyrics:

"K" is for Korea, just the north part.
"I" is for the Internet he bans.
"M" is for the millions that are missing.
"J" is for a human-tasting jam.
"O" is for "Oh, boy, we love our Leader!"
"N" is for the best Korea, North!
"G" is for "Gee whiz, we love our Leader!"

And the cringe-worthy but cleverly satirical lyrics cut off right there, segueing into a bit about whether Mrs Krabappel should be dating Principal Skinner or Ned Flanders ("Twilight" for Gen-Xers, I guess).

If I got a bit creative, I could finish it with, "I" is for the idiots who fund him, and "L" is for lost family we mourn. Okay, so that is a bit of a downer ending, but in my defense, it is North Korea.

...

The view from Pyongyang

With the death of Libya's deposed strongman Moammar Kadafi, perhaps this is as good a time as any to revisit what we've learned. Or rather, what the Pyongyang regime has learned. We've talked about this before, the lessons Pyongyang can glean from Libya.

In the recent past, I have said that the DPRK leadership has learned two things. From the Jasmine Revolution: Control information technology like your life depends on it, because it really does. From Libya's recent concessions with the West: Never, never, never, never give up (your nukes).

But now that Kadafi has been chased into a hole just like Saddam Hussein and then shot, let's address a third lesson.

I have suggested, and still do, that one of the things for Kim Jong-il to learn is that maybe it's better to take a deal:

I have long advocated that the powers-that-be in Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, and perhaps Beijing have on the table the same type of deal for North Korea's ruling elite, should disgruntlement with the regime ever erupt into a full-blown challenge to its authority.

As hard as it might be to stomach, it might make for a far smoother demise of the DPRK if Kim Jong-il, his family, his inner circle, etc., are just simply allowed to leave. If they are allowed to make an orderly play for the exits, it might mean less bloodshed (including attempts to attack the South or Japan in a desperate last-ditch attempt to rally the North Korean people), and it might also mean a quicker departure and thus a speedier end to the regime.

This is an important lesson for the Kim Dynasty because when things start to head downward, they do so at an accelerated 9.8 meters-per-second-per-second. The Norks are already trying their darndest to keep information out, particularly information about the Jasmine Revolution. North Koreans who are forcibly repatriated or voluntarily return are persona non grata with the regime, while average citizens are restricted from traveling even to neighboring counties lest they spread gossip or dissent.

But dictators across the Arab world also thought they had things under control, including Colonel Kadafi, and now he's dead. The same thing is plausible in North Korea, given the right circumstances. And if it comes down to that, take the deal, Mr Kim. Because they will hunt you down, they will find you, and you (and possibly your family) will end up dead.

The Mongolian steppe's looking pretty good right now, eh?

...

Well, I wouldn't trust whomever was trying to swallow up my country, either.

Ah, Wikileaks, the gift that keeps on giving us leakage.

I actually found this one quite encouraging: North Korea's Dear Leader apparently doesn't trust Beijing as far as he can throw them (despite his handing over the northernmost reaches of the DPRK to the Chinese).

From AFP:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il expressed distrust of his country's major economic prop China during a 2009 meeting with a visiting South Korean businesswoman, according to a US diplomatic cable.

The cable released by anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks summarises a meeting between the US ambassador in Seoul and Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jung-Eun, who had recently returned from a meeting in Pyongyang with the leader.

The cable dated August 28, 2009 quoted Hyun as saying Kim had made a comment about "not trusting" China, without elaborating.

That's nice to know, as I'm quite worried about a desperate regime in Pyongyang handing over the country bit by bit, in order to stay afloat.

The Wikileaks documents revealed some other interesting things as well:

Kim also complained that Seoul's unification ministry tasked with handling cross-border relations had "lost the driver's seat" to the foreign ministry, which he asserted did not understand North Korea. ...

Discussing relations with the United States, he told Hyun he had altered some parts of the Arirang festival to "fit American tastes".

Arirang involves tens of thousands of performers in mass games and artistic performances that praise the communist regime and the ruling dynasty.

The leader reportedly told Hyun he had cut out a sketch depicting a missile launch because he had heard Americans did not like it.

"He had also been advised that South Koreans did not like to see so many soldiers in the performance, so now more students were included," the cable says.

However, Kim described relations with Japan as "far worse than ever before" and Hyun was told separately by a senior official that the leader had ordered Japanese cars banned from Pyongyang's streets.

Wow, so KJI does care what the public thinks. Just not the public in his own country.

...

Is there a doctor in the house?

Anyone want to save me half an hour or so on WebMD and give me some ideas what the hell that brown patch is on the side of Kim Jong-il's head?

I'd do it myself, but I'm not a doctor (though I play one on TV).

Maybe he agreed to this summit because he thought the President of Russia was Medvedev Doctor.

Okay, no more bad puns. I really want to know what's up with that. Did someone box his ears during an attempted coup that they're now trying to cover up, à la George W. Bush and the pretzel incident?

Is it the beginning of a goiter?

While we're at it, what do you suppose he's laughing at?

...

Jasmine fall

With the regime of Moammar Gadhafi's regime really on the verge of collapse this time, I thought it might be a good chance to review a few posts from earlier this year that managed to tie together Libya and North Korea.

For starters, there's this post on how North Korean workers in Libya were not being allowed to return home despite the violence going on there, for fear that they would bring word of decades-long dictatorships starting to fall in the face of popular opposition and armed rebellion. I wonder what has happened to those North Korean workers and what their future holds. I'm guessing they really are better off in Africa for the time being, and I hope they're allowed to stay.

Probably a legal phone.

On a related note, this post talked about how the Pyongyang regime was trying hard to round up illegal cell phones in order to prevent the spread of such news.

Back in March, when it looked like Gadhafi might accept a deal to take his sons and go away to a comfortable exile in a neighboring country with lots of open desert, I suggested the same model might work for North Korea (Mongolia has lots of open desert).

Of course, Gadhafi didn't take the deal, but depending on whether he ends up like Slobodan Milošević (with a long prison term) or Saddam Hussein (with a long neck), Kim Jong-il and his cronies may wish to consider that option.

[source]

In this post, I also noted that North Korea may be looking at NATO's air support in Libya and thinking to themselves, "Like hell we're ever going to give up our nukes" (that was Libya's quid pro quo for US recognition).

Or, to borrow from Winston Churchill: "Never, never, never, never give up (your nukes)."

Best thing to do is to trick the North Koreans into testing each of them, one by one. Keep accusing them of lighting up a bunch of TNT deep in a mineshaft each time and watch them try to go ballistic.

UPDATE:
Joshua at One Free Korea has taken a hiatus from his hiatus to bring us some timely thoughts on the same subject.

Back in the USSR

We are receiving confirmation that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is in Russia and will meet President Putin Medvedev:

It is Kim’s first trip to Russia since 2002 and is the latest sign that North Korea is trying to reach out in an effort to secure aid and restart stalled nuclear disarmament talks. South Korean officials reported that Kim’s train had arrived in the Russian border city of Khasan, but the first confirmation that Kim was in Russia came in statements issued simultaneously by the Kremlin and North Korea’s official news agency. Kim will visit the Far East region of Russia and travel west to Siberia, the Kremlin and North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said.

As usual, whenever the Dear Leader is outside North Korea, I urge whoever is up to the task to join the brown parade.

Oh, and before anyone gets on my case about referring to the Russian Federation by the name of its communist forerunner, please let me note that I'm perfectly aware that Russia is no longer called the USSR or the Soviet Union. And that alone makes me more qualified than Michele Bachmann to be president:

According to the liberal website Think Progress, Bachmann, whose grasp of history on the trail at times has been somewhat shaky, said during a radio interview Thursday that Americans today are mindful of the threat posed by a rising U.S.S.R., which, like Elvis, left the building a long, long time ago.

“What people recognize is that there’s a fear that the United States is in an unstoppable decline. They see the rise of China, the rise of India, the rise of the Soviet Union and our loss militarily going forward,” Bachmann said on conservative activist Jay Sekulow’s show. “And especially with this very bad debt ceiling bill, what we have done is given a favor to President Obama, and the first thing he’ll whack is 500 billion out of the military defense at a time when we’re fighting three wars. People recognize that.”

Talk about scare-mongering, we've got socialist-Islamofascist Manchurian Candidate babies from Kenya in the White House, and now the USSR is coming back from the grave!

Come to think of it, if we're finding out now how poor her grasp is on history, geography, and how the world around us is put together, we're lucky to find out now instead of later.

You don't know how lucky you are, boy.

"I can see the Soviet Union from my house!"

Planes, Trains, and Autocrats

North Korea Leadership Watch has a nice roundup of reports that Kim Jong-il's train is headed for Shenyang, with Yonhap speculating that his eventual destination is Beijing.

While he could be headed for the Chinese capital eventually, I think a visit to Shenyang is more keeping in line with what I believe the real purpose of the trip is (outlined here and more recently here): schooling Kim Jong-il (and possibly Kim Jong-un) on Socialism With Northeastern Chinese Characteristics™ as part of Beijing's list of demands to allow any dynastic transition to occur.

Kim Jong-il going south?

Ah, the beauty of ambiguous language. The title could be wondering if (a) Kim Jong-il's health is deteriorating, (b) the Dear Leader may be heading for a lower latitude, (c) or KJI will be joining OBL in the ninth circle of hell.

The answer is (b), though (a) and (c) remain future possibilities.

My attempt to Google Image search appropriate artwork
depicting KJI suffering in Hades has failed.
You'd think it'd be a popular theme.

ROK President Lee Myungbak has said he will invite North Korean strongman Kim Jong-il to a summit if the Dear Leader pledges to give up atomic weapons.

From Bloomberg:

Lee said he would extend an invitation to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to a security meeting next March if the communist government agrees to the condition. The South Korean president will host the summit next year as part of a global initiative championed by President Barack Obama to secure nuclear stockpiles. ...

The North Korean leader told visiting former U.S. President Jimmy Carter last month that he is ready to meet Lee any time and over any issue. The South has resisted talks with North Korea until Kim’s regime shows a “responsible attitude” toward attacks last year that killed 50 South Koreans.

My goodness, that's a lot of ifs. If he gives up nukes... If he's willing to travel to a place where he might encounter angry opposition and he's not in total control of his security... If he's still alive next March (and I think he will be)...

One must also remember that Kim Jong-il goes through more pledges than a horny frat boy at a sorority mixer during Orientation Week. (Too long and too obscure for the meager payoff, I know.)

Frankly, I doubt KJI will actually end up coming to Seoul, but I think Pyongyang will make like he is planning to go up until the very end.

Can you imagine Kim Jong-il being pelted with eggs? His handlers are probably horrified at the prospect. And after what's gone on in Libya, they're horrified by the thought of giving up nukes as well. Let's not also forget that Kim Jong-il getting a whiff of free-wheeling capitalism is not the best way to get him to reform.

And then, if KJI does leave the country, there's always the chance of a brown parade back home.

Everything sunny all the time always

If you're like me, you never miss NBC's Thursday night line-up on Hulu. You are also lactose intolerant, a hopeless procrastinator, and you think pop music has mostly gone downhill since the 1990s.

Owing to a busy schedule, this being the final lap of the semester, I haven't yet made it through all of this week's Thursday offerings, but I did manage to catch this season's penultimate episode of 30 Rock, which featured Margaret Cho playing Kim Jong-il.

I shan't go into any details which might spoil the episode for you, but I will tell you I'm tickled pink that Tina Fey and crew decided to go co-opt a running gag here at Monster Island and make it part of the show.

I am, of course, referring to this and this:

above: Jury's out on this one. Could be a double, but could also be Kim Jong-il in his Margaret Cho phase. (Seriously, this guy looks like the guy two photos up, so they could be the same double.)

And especially this:

At any rate, I think the picture below supports a running theory I've had for a while ...

... that Kim Jong-il is actually a character created and performed by Margaret Cho. 

The 30 Rock episode didn't quite go in this direction, but still, I wonder if I really might have inspired NBC or Margaret Cho herself to have the All-American Girl ham it up as the Dear Leader. Or was this connection just obvious to everyone?

Welcome back, Carter!

Read all about President Jimmy Carter's third visit to Pyongyang on his blog:

We will be working hard in our few days in Pyongyang to learn as much as we can about the North Korean position. I hope we will be able to return to the US and Europe with a positive and constructive message. We have been told that our visit here is seen as helpful in establishing a positive atmosphere and that the people in both North and South expect a lot from us.

It is to my mind a tragedy that, more than 60 years after the Armistice that ended the Korean War, North and South Korea have not signed a peace treaty. My country, the United States, is South Korea’s guarantor, which creates enormous anxiety among the North Korean people and drains their political energy and resources.

Yup. The North Koreans were hoping Mr Carter would do two things for them: Bring food for them, and then carry water for them.

Anyway, we also get news (via Yonhap) that Kim Jong-il proposed to Carter that the leaders of the two Koreas hold a summit:

"He specifically told us that he is prepared for a summit meeting directly with President Lee Myung-bak at any time to discuss any subject directly between the two heads of state," Carter said, referring to a message he said he received from Kim hours earlier.

"Although we did not meet with the leader of North Korea, when we had already departed from our guest home, we were asked to come back to receive a personal message," Carter said in a press conference. ...

South Korea, which has repeatedly said it is open to a summit with North Korea, had yet to respond to the proposal. On Tuesday, South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan had downplayed the Elders trip, saying Pyongyang should rather speak to Seoul directly.

Kim Jong-il "sent word he is willing and the people of North Korea are willing to negotiate with South Korea or the United States or (the other powers involved in six-party talks) on any subject at any time and without any preconditions," Carter said.

GI Korea at ROK Drop had some clear opinions on the subject:

Kim Jong-il is just making this announcement because he knows President Lee won’t agree to it until the North Koreans apologize for sinking the Cheonan and shelling Yeonpyeong-do island last year. This make Kim Jong-il look like the reasonable party and he can let the useful idiots like Jimmy Carter and company to criticize President Lee for not agreeing to the summit. What President Lee should do is agree to the summit request but only if Kim Jong-il comes to Seoul for the summit like he promised the late former Korean President Kim Dae-jung.

I think GI Korea may be right that there is a strong possibility this is the Pyongyang regime's attempt to look like the reasonable one (and let's face it: both Tokyo and Pyongyang are often very good at playing off of Seoul in order to look like the rational one), but part of me believes this is sincere. That is, if President Lee agrees to meet with the Dear Leader, maybe KJI thinks he stands to gain something material from it.

Kim Jong-il, you've just succeeded at
subjugating your people into a cowering mass.
What will you do next?

"I'm going to EverLand!"

My recommendation would be to agree to meet, pushing for Seoul or Kanghwa-do (or some place north near Panmunjom) as the venue but not sticking to it if it has to be in Pyongyang. If KJI insists it must be in North Korea, make it Kaesŏng. Don't go to the capital.

The reason I say this is that we are at a crossroads. Kim Jong-il has had a major brush with death (i.e., his stroke and possibly cancer or at least a cancer scare) and he is smart enough to read the writing on the wall. If he really is grooming his son to take over — and if he is actually allowed to — it may be that he's being set up to be the kinder, gentler North Korea leader. Heck, Kim Jong-il himself may be poised to make a grand gesture.

At the very least, now is the time to start rebuilding personal relationships, allowing each side to start seeing the other as someone they can work with. It is in our best interest if North Korea starts to trust us.

But don't bring anything more expensive than a bottle of Chivas Regal. The most expensive item for this summit should be train fare for Lee and his entourage (if it's in North Korea) or three nights of accommodations at the Shilla Hotel (if it's in South Korea).

From Libya, a solution for North Korea

[source]

It looks like the Jasmine Revolution may finally be succeeding in Libya. There are reports that Moammar Gadhafi has seen the writing on the wall and he is plotting his escape.

From CNN:

Moammar Gadhafi is trying to strike a deal with opposition leaders, saying he will step down as Libya's leader if they can guarantee him safe passage out of the country and promise that neither he nor his family will face prosecution, an official with the opposition said Tuesday.

I have long advocated that the powers-that-be in Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, and perhaps Beijing have on the table the same type of deal for North Korea's ruling elite, should disgruntlement with the regime ever erupt into a full-blown challenge to its authority.

As hard as it might be to stomach, it might make for a far smoother demise of the DPRK if Kim Jong-il, his family, his inner circle, etc., are just simply allowed to leave. If they are allowed to make an orderly play for the exits, it might mean less bloodshed (including attempts to attack the South or Japan in a desperate last-ditch attempt to rally the North Korean people), and it might also mean a quicker departure and thus a speedier end to the regime.

Sure, it wouldn't be particularly satisfying if Kim Jong-il avoids the hangman's noose or a prison cell and instead lives out the rest of his days in a palatial estate constructed on a 3km-by-3km plot of land on the steppes of Inner Mongolia, but how many lives will be spared by getting the Dear Leader himself to pull the plug on the regime and not shoot up the place on his way out? Doesn't that trump the desire to exact justice for the lives we could not?

North Korea's ruling elite and rank-and-file apparatchiki must also be reading the writing on the wall, and that means it's time to start laying down some ground rules. This is the time to make it clear that we will go after people who do dastardly things like fire on civilians, imprison people who stand up to the regime in its final days, etc. If some county supervisor in Ryanggang-do Province, let's say, hasn't done anything bad beyond being a party hack, maybe he can at least avoid prison and possibly even keep his job.

In other words, give them alternatives other than going out in a blaze of glory.

Jong 2:16

Today is the Fear Leader's Birthday, so what better time to trot out what is one of my all-time favorite headlines and a few of the pictures that go along with them.

• Um, happy birthday? (possibly NSFW, but I don't know where you work)
• Jong 2:16
• Jong 2:16, Part 2

I'll reiterate what I wrote last year:

I guess if there's one thing to celebrate on the Dear Leader's birthday, it's that he's gotten one year closer to death (and I'm optimistically assuming that his eventual demise will trigger an eventual end to the regime, unlike, say, the last time a DPRK leader died).

Geez, this guy really has some staying power, and here we all were thinking back in 2009 that his time left on Earth was being measured with a stopwatch. If only there'd have been someone holding up their hand and saying, gee, maybe we're making a bunch of speculative assumptions about his health that simply aren't substantiated.

Oh, wait... there was! (How badly the press and those singing chorus got it on that one directly informs why I'm so skeptical about The Kim Who Wasn't There.)