Who to believe? Who to believe?

Jean Lee of AP's Pyongyang Bureau

I've slightly mocked the over-seriousness of the reaction to North Korea's latest satellite-on-a-missile launch or nuclear detonation down in some mine, either of which would only really be a problem if they can actually succeed. And even then it's not entirely clear how much more of a rogue state they can become (the evildoers who would want their missiles already have other potential sellers and it would be the nukes the Norks already supposedly have that would be the true danger).

But what's also somewhat amusing (to me, anyway, but I'm easily amused) is how the media is reacting to it. Last night, I went to bed reading an Associated Press piece in the Orange County Register saying that South Korea has given a tentative bill of good health to the satellite that is orbiting Earth and most likely broadcasting the Great Leader's favorite revolutionary movies to any alien spaceship passing by:

A satellite North Korea launched aboard a long-range rocket is orbiting normally, South Korea said Thursday, following a defiant liftoff that drew a wave of international condemnation.

Washington and its allies are pushing for punishment over the launch they say is nothing but a test of banned ballistic missile technology.

The launch of the three-stage rocket — similar in design to a model capable of carrying a nuclear-tipped warhead as far as California — raises the stakes in the international standoff over North Korea's expanding atomic arsenal. As Pyongyang refines its technology, its next step may be conducting its third nuclear test, experts warn.

South Korea's Defense Ministry said the satellite launched by the rocket is orbiting normally at a speed of 7.6 kilometers (4.7 miles) per second, though it's not known what mission it is performing. North Korean space officials say the satellite would be used to study crops and weather patterns.

Defense Ministry Spokesman Kim Min-seok said it usually takes about two weeks to determine whether a satellite works succesfully after liftoff. He cited data from the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

Okay, so I made up the part about ET (or did I?). But AP themselves seem to be caught up in their own happy ending. Granted that the article does state that the Kwangmyŏng-3 satellite is not out of the space woods yet, but it's a generally hunky-dory piece, authored by the AP's man in Pyongyang, Jean Lee, about whom there are some serious questions regarding a quid pro quo between the AP and DPRK trading access for good press with a sprinkle of propagandizing.

Contrast it with the NBC News take:

The object that North Korea sent into space on Wednesday appears to be “tumbling out of control” as it orbits the earth, U.S. officials told NBC News.

The officials said that it is indeed some kind of space vehicle, but they still haven’t been able to determine exactly what the satellite is supposed to do.

In a statement, the White House said the rocket launch was a highly provocative act that threatens regional security and violates U.N. resolutions.

The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday condemned the launch, calling it a "clear violation" of U.N. resolutions. A spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he "deplores" the launch.

I remember when "provocative" meant sexy. Missiles shot in the air, not provocative to me. Something explosive happening deep in a hole... well maybe.

Anyhoo, NBC News also reports that China is upset:

North Korea had warned of a possible delay to the launch for "technical reasons," although there was speculation that the real reason was political, that China was applying pressure behind the scenes. After all, Beijing had expressed "deep concern" over the test, and that is pretty strong for China, the North's closest diplomatic and economic ally.

So Wednesday's test would seem to be an extraordinary snub to China, when it might be assumed that North Korea's new young leader, Kim Jong Un, would want to get off on a good footing with China's new Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping.

North Korea watchers have been speculating that Kim is angling for an early audience with Xi, which so far has been denied.

Launching a rocket in defiance of Beijing would hardly seem a great way of achieving it.

Beijing's initial response was a masterful piece of diplomatic contortionism -- expressing "regret" and calling on Pyongyang to abide by U.N. Security Council resolutions, but at the same time making clear that China isn't about to back sanctions against the North.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman called for a resumption of six-party talks, even though these have been widely discredited, and called for "all sides" to act calmly.

There was anger, dismay and some surprise as North Korea launched a rocket in defiance of its critics abroad. NBC's Ian Williams reports from Beijing.

International talks are a big favorite of Beijing, which likes the role of diplomatic ringmaster.

More than being ringmaster, Beijing loves its ring of satellite states and buffer territories: Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and North Korea. Still, maybe it's time for China to consider the Kushibo Plan and help us turn the lights out on the Kim Dynasty regime. Wise up, already, they are slipping from your control, PRC leaders, and it's high time you realize that.

...

Pyongyang puts the Ikea in "North Korea missiles"

Remember last year, when their Chinese benefactors sent the North Koreans on a Capital Mystery Tour of the United States so they could learn how a market-driven economy operates? Well, recent news suggests they were especially taken by their trips to a certain Sweden-based do-it-yourself furniture chain.

Thè ëlëtrønícs iŋ Ikea, 
like thìs big sçréèn TV, àre åll fåké. 

You see, it seems that some experts believe that the parade of ICBM missiles and weaponry we've seen at post-missile launch parade in Pyongyang are fake. Like the electronic props you see when you walk through an Ikea showroom.

Now, let's not get ahead of ourselves and start depicting North Korea as a paper tiger. There is, after all, a whole host of artillery that could do an incredible amount of damage if it were to rain down wrath onto Seoul (my home) and its northern suburbs of P'aju, Ilsan, Munsan, etc (which themselves have over a million residents). And let's not forget that our friends in China seem to be surreptitiously helping them out with their missile ventures. (Would a fake Ikea store in China contain real electronics? Ooh, wrap your head around that one!)

Nevertheless, this accusation of missilery fakery has been fodder for late-night comics, including this bit on Conan O'Brien (HT to DA):



That was funny. The Korean used in the Conan bit was amusing, translating “Camera-1” as “카메라 하나” (sort of like "one camera"). And the North Koreans would never refer to themselves as 북한 (Puk'an, the South Korean word for North Korea) and their language as 한국어 (Han•gugǒ, also the South Korean word). North Koreans would say Chŏson and Chosŏnŏ or Chosŏnmal.

Nevertheless that semi-earnest effort on their part just makes it even funnier.

...

Is North Korea an episode of "Mythbusters"?

I'd been avoiding writing about the launch, or writing about the writing about the launch, but when it seemed imminent, I was all set to do a post on the over-under for what might happen. This might include such possibilities as...

• It flies a perfect trajectory between South Korea and China, landing as predicted in waters off the Philippines. 

• It heads over the territory of South Korea or Japan and is shot down.

• It heads over the territory of South Korea or Japan and the president says "next time, we'll shoot it down."

• It hits an airplane on the way up or the way down. 

• It hits a flock of birds on the way up or the way down.

• It fizzles shortly after leaving the launchpad.

• It fizzles shortly after leaving the launchpad and crashes into the Western propaganda stooges below.

• It crashes into Tokyo, pissing off the Japanese government, resulting in pressure to convert Self-Defense Forces into full-blown military.

• Guided by karma, it goes off course and heads for Hawaii, punishment for the callous remark I made about the Western propaganda stooges. 

• It crash-lands in South Korea, and netizens claim it was all made up by the Lee Myungbak administration.

• It crashes into the undersea caldera of some volcano off the coast of Japan, awakening Godzilla or some similar creature, resulting in pressure to convert Self-Defense Forces into full-blown military.

These would have been gentlemen's bets, of course (though they would be open to ladies and English teachers). 

Well, I took too long to set all that up, and now it turns out the they've launched it. And according to US officials monitoring the event, it fizzled shortly after leaving the launchpad. Okay, who had "fizzled"? Congratulations! You win an internship with Captain Obvious. 

Anyway, as we saw report after report (it was covered prodigiously on NBC, ABC, and CNN, not to mention AP) of the set up and the "satellite" and we heard from the engineers talking about what it's supposed to do, and we had all those cameras recording every minute and minutiae, I couldn't help but thinking: This is an episode of Mythbusters. 

If you haven't seen the show, I'll describe it succinctly: It's about two nerds and their crew of nerds who like to shoot things in the air and blow stuff up. Really, the entire Pyongyang regime is Mythbusters. 

And what they've proven in this episode is that North Korea is most definitely not ready for prime time, at least when it comes to rockets and missiles. 

Sure, they'll say it was a success, and no doubt all the workers at People's Photoshop Manipulation Facility #4 and Workers Artist Rendition Production Facility #2 and #7 will be hard at work producing the pictures of North Korea from space that the satellite was supposed to be beaming down to a beaming Kim Jong-un. But the inner circle and the elite will know the truth, and this is a terrible disappointment. Heads will roll (literally).

And that's a good thing (except for any punitive executions). Because I imagine that among the factions (and even within various groups), there is real soul-searching about what direction to go in, and now they realize they can't keep putting all their eggs into the scare-the-sh¡t-out-of-the-neighbors-to-wrest-concessions-from-them basket. On the other hand, China's offering to teach us how to convert the economy in such a way that the privileged end up filthy rich, so maybe we try that direction for a while. 

Oh, God. That sounded more depressing than I'd first intended, but it is a better choice than the status quo. 

Kim Jong-un, old buddy, take notice of what happened. This failure to reach orbit is an opportunity, not a setback. Let's talk; you know how to reach me. 

... 

A thousand points of fright

Reuters (via the Grey Lady) is reporting that North Korea has expanded its missile capacity by twenty-five percent over the past two years, from 800 in 2008 to 1000 in 2010:

Pyongyang's arsenal includes intermediate-range missiles that can hit targets at up to 3,000 km (1,860 miles) away, Yonhap news agency quoted Kim Tae-young as telling a forum of business leaders.

The missiles could hit all of Japan and put U.S. military bases in Guam at risk.

South Korea's last estimate of the North's missile stockpile was 800 done in 2008, Yonhap said. Its Defence White Paper in 2008 said the North had deployed the intermediate range missile.

The estimate comes at a time when the North is seen to be under increasing pressure to return to six-party talks on nuclear disarmament, following economic sanctions imposed on it after its nuclear test in May 2009.

It always strikes me as peculiar the way the North Korean military threat is written up. Screw South Korea, the media seems to be suggesting... these things could hit Hawaii! And uninhabited Alaskan islands! And Guam! Which is part of the US! Even here, they seem to be assuming the average reader doesn't realize Guam is American (and why would they?), so they emphasize the missiles could hit US bases in Guam.

But that's not too terribly likely. If the DPRK strikes American anything, it's game over. The US would come down so hard, the Norks would wake up in last Tuesday. No, what the DPRK would want to do is hit South Korea so hard so fast that the US wouldn't have time to react and — they hope — wouldn't have the stomach to get involved. Or, alternatively, strike South Korea quickly and then threaten to hit Japan if the US enters the conflict. Either/or.

Living in Seoul, we're always under the threat of a North Korean military attack, including artillery, so this news is scarier, but it's not new. Folks in Japan might feel a bit more on edge, because the prospect of really pounding Japan is now 200 missiles stronger.

And of course, there's always the possibility that Pyongyang might end up selling these missiles to a rogue state or two for some hard currency during these hard times.

No matter what, this is not a good thing.

[above: Analysts believe North Korea's expanded arsenal will mean longer parades in Pyongyang.]

North Korean missile launch pool

Welp, if you were planning to spend you're yachting vacation in the Yellow Sea, you might want to head for waters farther south: North Korea has declared the area a "no-sail zone," and South Korean authorities are pretty sure that means we've got another missile launch.

This kind of saber-rattling is getting a bit old, so I thought I'd liven things up by having a "missile launch pool." Guess the time it is detected to have launched, and we'll see who gets closest. I owe the winner a Coke™. Times must be in local Korean time. I'll start: Friday morning, 9:21 a.m.

Oh, how I would love for the thing to go awry (more than usual) and end up flying over Chinese territory. Let's see how tolerant Beijing is of L'il Kim then. [note to staff: check if "Yellow Sea" may have gotten its name from people peeing themselves when North Korea suddenly shoots things off]