Kerry says engage North Korea directly

Writing in an oped piece that appeared in the Los Angeles Times, former Democratic presidential nominee and current US Senator from Massachusetts John Kerry says that the Obama administration's stance has been measured, firm, but ultimately inadequate. He calls for direct talks:

Returning immediately to the six-party talks (which included North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Russia, China and Japan) is not viable. South Korea won't participate unless North Korea atones for its recent bad behavior. And the North, approaching a leadership succession in 2012, is disinclined to cooperate lest it look weak.

Similarly, there are limits to the pressure that China is willing and able to apply. China exerts the most leverage as North Korea's ally and largest trading partner, but it's not willing to risk the country's collapse. Further, Pyongyang has a habit of stubbornly resisting good advice, even from its patrons in Beijing.

The best alternative is for the United States to engage North Korea directly.

We all have grown weary of North Korea's truculence — its habit of ratcheting up tensions, followed by calls to negotiate back from the brink, followed by concessions, and a repetition of the process. But while North Korea may be the "land of lousy options," as one expert calls it, inaction only invites a dangerous situation to get worse.

While he accepts the label of North Korea as "the land of lousy options," I say, pragmatically, nothing can be done about North Korea, not without China's consent. And frankly, I think Senator Kerry misreads and misunderstands the degree and extent of China's influence.

China may already be taking last year's attacks and using them as a pretext for changing Pyongyang's behavior at a holistic level. China does not want to lose their buffer, of course, and they also want access to the East Sea (aka Sea of Japan), and they have belatedly realized how bad it is for Beijing to ignore Pyongyang's bad behavior.

Note that all of this has little to do with what Seoul, Washington, or Tokyo have done. When Seoul takes a hardline stance on Pyongyang, as current President Lee Myungbak has done, North Korea sinks South Korean ships and shells South Korean islands, but even when South Korea was on the complete opposite course, in the heady days of Sunshine Policy openness, there were major military clashes out in the Yellow Sea.

And thus Kerry misjudges the situation, saying a dangerous situation will get worse if we do nothing, when in fact it is our predictable "gotta do something" response that precipitates the next round of brinkmanship by North Korea. Pyongyang thinks it has a winning formula, which is why (as I colorfully illustrated here, where I noted that Kim Jong-il acts like a six-year-old Kushibo) we need to break that cycle.

President Obama has been firm and his response measured because he is not reacting as his predecessors did. Certainly he has the benefit of foresight that Clinton and even Bush43 did not, and he so far seems to be sticking to what Joshua Stanton of One Free Korea calls "Plan B," a hard-nosed, non-military threat that hurts the Pyongyang regime financially to effect changes in their behavior.

Now where Joshua and I may disagree is that I think it was necessary to at least try Sunshine Policy, given that a hardline policy had been ineffective for the nearly half century prior to that, and I think even though Sunshine Policy failed (in part for being too much carrot and not enough stick) engagement should be tried in ways that will not benefit the DPRK military or line the coffers of the regime (see previous link). But we both agree that Obama should stick to this plan. To engage now would just reward Kim Jong-il's government for patiently waiting for anger to subside just enough that Washington and Seoul will come to the table, making such bad acts more likely in the future when Pyongyang isn't getting its way again.

It also comes at a time when Beijing may actually be effecting real changes, for a change. Although I am deeply concerned that China's ultimate goal may be to fully integrate North Korea into its Northeastern Provinces (making North Korea the Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Region), China has started to leverage its role as North Korea's only friend of substance, forcing Pyongyang to make economic reforms, helped along by China in exchange for small territorial concessions.

But that largely gets ignored. While I've been beating the drum that China has begun this reform-and-absorb policy in earnest, the rest of the world was distracted by the Kim Jong-un ascension side show.

My conclusion is that people like Senator Kerry should visit Monster Island and One Free Korea a bit more often, because then you might see that Pyongyang is still trying to play you, but Obama seems to have picked up on that.

If any negotiations should be done with North Korea at this time, it should be to decide which plot of land in Mongolia the Royal Kimenbaums would like for their exile.

Requisite picture of threatening-looking images from 
North Korea that must accompany any article on North Korea. 
In this photo: North Korean MILDs (military I'd like to disarm).

See the DPRK in a Chevrolet (or other Chinese-made GM vehicle)

From the Wall Street Journal, we get word of a Reuters story about a rally of sorts through the North Korean countryside:

China’s rapidly expanding network of highways, burgeoning obsession with the car and swelling stocks of disposable income have conspired to remake a once quintessentially American past time — the road trip — into the height of recreational fashion among monied Chinese weekenders.

Now it appears China’s road warriors have the pursuit to a place no American is allowed to roam: the trails and turnpikes, such as they are, of North Korea.

According the Reuters voice over on the CCTV report above, 100 Chinese tourists recently crossed the border to participate in the first ever “self-driven” tour allowed in the Hermit Kingdom. Because of the condition of North Korean roads, the report says, the convoy was limited to trucks with four-wheel drive. The tour looks to have included stops at a number of Potempkin hotels and restaurants. Total cost: $147 per person, or roughly 49 times the official average monthly income in Pyongyang.

One of the people interviewed notes that things appear to have improved since she was in North Korea a decade earlier. Her evidence? The hotels are nicer and there's abundant seafood.

Okay, then.

Still, that North Korea would allow this kind of thing at all is a possible indication of two things: (a) slightly greater confidence in allowing visitors to travel around unencumbered by handlers, even if the visitors are vetted from a friendly country, and (b) North Koreans themselves having greater exposure to outsiders and their trappings of wealth.

I say this because I've always felt that North Korean opening up — and I believe China is trying to force that upon North Korea — is a Trojan horse that could be a major contributor to the downfall of the Pyongyang regime as we know it. Like Dallas being broadcast into East Germany.

Brazil having nightmares of "neo-colonialism" as it is sucked into China's orbit

An interesting piece in the New York Times describes the conundrum Brazil finds itself in, a situation that has implications on the Korean peninsula as high-tech South Korea becomes more and more economically entwined with the PRC and the backward regime in North Korea finds itself increasingly reliant on China for its political survival.

Like South Korea, Brazil had thought that now was the time to stop being so dependent on US markets for its goods — electronics and automobiles in South Korea's case, agricultural products and raw materials in Brazil's case. In Brazil, some are questioning the wisdom of this bargain:

China has become Brazil’s biggest trading partner, buying ever increasing volumes of soybeans and iron ore, while investing billions in Brazil’s energy sector. The demand has helped fuel an economic boom here that has lifted more than 20 million Brazilians from extreme poverty and brought economic stability to a country accustomed to periodic crises.

Yet some experts say the partnership has devolved into a classic neo-colonial relationship in which China has the upper hand. Nearly 84 percent of Brazil’s exports to China last year were raw materials, up from 68 percent in 2000. But about 98 percent of China’s exports to Brazil are manufactured products — including the latest, low-priced cars for Brazil’s emerging middle class — that are beating down Brazil’s industrial sector.

“The relationship has been very unbalanced,” said Rubens Ricupero, a former Brazilian diplomat and finance minister. “There has been a clear lack of strategy on the Brazilian side.”

One can say the same of China and North Korea, which is being positioned to become a permanent part of Beijing's northeastern China development plans; at the very least China is seeking ports for its goods, but it may also be seeking markets. China has the son of Generalissimo Kim by the cojones, and with every twist they get new concessions that don't bode well for North Korea or a future unified Korean state (if Beijing were to allow that to happen).

For South Korea, it's a bit different. South Korean businesses use China as a factory floor, but Seoul is often afraid to do things that would cross Beijing, with echoes of that historic Big Brother-Little Brother relationship.

Anyway, it's just more evidence that China is not necessarily the benevolent counterbalance to Washington that some had wished for. I just hope it's not too late to do something about it. Please, ROK conglomerates, consider Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Pakistan, etc.

Educating Leader (UPDATED)

UPDATE 1:
Although the WaPo had also reported that Kim Jong-un is the one in China, AP is now saying that it might actually be Kim Jong-il himself (Yonhap has the story here). This doesn't change my theory below: China is acquiescing to preservation of the dynasty only if North Korea goes along with China's plans and ideas, and Beijing will be pushing to make sure Kim Jong-un understands what is expected.

UPDATE 2:
Here is the latest from Yonhap and the LAT. They are saying the original reports had it backwards and it is now kinda sorta confirmed that Kim Jong-il is in China, while they're still wondering if Boy Wonder is with him. Note that the the LAT's picture (shown below) is of the North Korean embassy in Beijing even though the reports indicate that the Dear Leader and/or his son are in the part of China much closer to the DPRK. Very confusing (not to mention sloppy), and I don't understand why they do things like that.

The media, which is largely failing to grasp the on-going story about China's Manchurianization of North Korea, is speculating that this trip "might be a request for food and economic aid," so they are assuming the final destination will be Beijing (and it indeed could be). The LAT's Barbara Demick does seem to have some inkling of what's going on, with her mention of the de facto Chinese takeover of a North Korean island in the Yalu River.

Regarding the confusion of Who's On First right now, the initial reports were not entirely wrong, as they were half right in saying that "it remains to be seen whether he was traveling alone or together with Kim Jong-il," and it turns out KJI is there and KJU himself might be there.

Actually, if L'il L'il Kim is not with Daddy Dearest, it would appear Beijing is less eager to groom Kim Jong-un, which strengthens my theory all along that KJU is being treated by China as The Kim Who Wasn't There and that they are only reluctantly going along with any inkling of a succession only in exchange for major concessions on reform and "minor" concessions on territorial control (see below). And the fact that either one of the Kims is in Northeast China strengthens that overall theory as well.

Just read this below and follow the links and it will all make sense.

This is the LAT's photo for the KJI-in-China story. It's a paramilitary police officer at the North Korean embassy in Beijing, opening a gate for a diplomatic car. Even though KJI is not in Beijing, this is the go-to spot for a photo for the story, which only confuses the reader. KJI is, if reports are correct, not in Beijing but in China's northeastern provinces. This is key because it is those provinces that Beijing is pushing to have North Korea integrated with. It is those provinces' economic reforms that Beijing is modeling for Pyongyang. By the way, I have visited this embassy, back in college. I talked with some North Korean diplomats inside. Nice people, or so it seemed. 

ORIGINAL POST:
Yonhap is reporting that heir-inapparent Kim Jong-un is in China.

From Yonhap:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's heir apparent son, Kim Jong-un, has been confirmed to be visiting China, a source in a Chinese border city said Friday.

The junior Kim arrived in Tumen, in the northeastern Chinese province of Jilin, early Friday morning, but his next destination has yet to be confirmed, the source in Tumen told Yonhap News Agency. The source asked not to be identified, citing the issue's sensitivity.

Security has been tightened considerably in Tumen and areas linking the Chinese city with North Korean border, the source added.

A ranking government official in Seoul said that the North's presumed heir may have certainly arrived in China considering circumstances observed so far, noting he is unlikely to travel to Beijing.

When Beijing summons the leader of its vassal state, it can only mean one thing. The problem is, we usually have to guess at what that one thing is.

The press will likely fall over itself showing how it is yet further evidence that the Young General is solidifying his role as next leader of North Korea...

The trip is widely seen as China's seal of approval for what would mark the communist regime's second hereditary power succession.

... but I, on the other hand, am a bit more skeptical.

As those of you who travel in the alternate universe of Monster Island* know, China is leveraging its tentative support for the Kim Dynasty as a way of solidifying its control over North Korea and its plans to integrate it into China's Northeastern Provinces, what I call the Manchurianization of North Korea.

We've already seen Chinese troops moving into the free-trade zone port of Rajin/Rasŏn to secure a Chinese-controlled outlet on the Sea of Japan. And we are likely witnessing Beijing allowing dynastic rule to continue as long as the Pyongyang regime makes economic reforms, including researching socialism-with Chinese characteristics as well as plain old capitalism.

In exchange for Beijing's continued support, the Pyongyang regime is also being forced to give political and geographic concessions that allow China to meld the future Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Region with the provinces of Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang.

And thus it's notable that Kim Jong-un is not headed for Beijing but is instead going no farther than the provinces just beyond the river. No doubt this trip by the younger Kim is meant as a means to educate the future king. We've seen this before and we should expect to see it more and more.

So, in conclusion, it is not a seal of approval. It's driver's ed.

*actually a peninsula

China to send troops to Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Region

[Yonhap graphic showing location of Rajin/Najin port (라진/나진, 
aka Rasŏn/Nasŏn or 라선/나선) in relation to China]

Peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula — defined in practical terms as Beijing pulling the plug on its support for the Pyongyang regime and allowing Seoul to absorb the DPRK without incident or interference — may have just gotten a lot harder. For the first time since 1994, China will station troops in North Korea, to protect the port facilities it is developing in Rasŏn (also known as Rajin or Najin).

From AFP:

China is in discussions with North Korea about stationing its troops in the isolated state for the first time since 1994, a South Korean newspaper reported Saturday.

The Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted an anonymous official at the presidential Blue House as saying that Beijing and Pyongyang recently discussed details of stationing Chinese soldiers in the North's northeastern city of Rason.

The official said the soldiers would protect Chinese port facilities, but the location also gives access to the Sea of Japan (East Sea), while a senior security official was quoted as saying it would allow China to intervene in case of North Korean instability.

A spokeswoman for the Blue House said she had no information, while China's defence ministry declined comment to AFP on the matter this week.

"North Korea and China have discussed the issue of stationing a small number of Chinese troops to protect China-invested port facilities" in the Rason special economic zone, the unnamed official was quoted as saying.

"The presence of Chinese troops is apparently to guard facilities and protect Chinese nationals."

China reportedly gained rights in 2008 to use a pier at Rason, securing access to the Sea of Japan (East Sea), as North Korea's dependence on Beijing continues to grow amid a nuclear stand-off with the United States and its allies.

The last Chinese troops left the North in 1994, when Beijing withdrew from the Military Armistice Commission that supervises the truce that ended the 1950-53 Korean war.

I couldn't find the Chosun Ilbo article they were talking about in English or in Korean [UPDATE: Destination Pyongyang has a Korean-language link in their excellent treatment of this news, and the Chosun Ilbo now has the story in English]. And I'm quite curious how many constitutes "a small number." In a nation of 1.3 billion, who knows?

We've already talked about development of these port facilities and the multi-billion-dollar economic package of which they are a part, what I call the "Manchurianization of North Korea." As a crucial element of its own attempt to reform North Korea, China is pressuring the Pyongyang regime to adopt Chinese-style economic reforms that will help integrate its economy with the PRC's northeastern provinces along its border with North Korea (that, I have been saying repeatedly, is the real story the Western media should be paying attention to instead of the supposed rise of the Kim Who Wasn't There™).

And what China gets out of it, they hope, is a stable satellite state (if not future territory, the Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Region), along with coveted access to the East Sea (Sea of Japan). This is not something China will give up lightly, especially now that there will be PLA troops in North Korea to maintain their position no matter what happens to the DPRK government. I guess that's all the more reason to consider the solution I outlined just yesterday, which would be to preemptively grant China access in a unified Korea, in exchange for them stepping back and letting the Pyongyang regime collapse and Seoul pick up the pieces.

Perhaps there is some way to turn this big new wrinkle in our favor. One can't imagine that the North Korean citizenry is any fonder of foreign troops in their country than their fellow-traveling chinboista counterparts are in the South. So let's make this an issue in the propaganda we send to them. Lincolns, Hamiltons, and Jacksons have just enough room in the margins for a message like, "Kim Jong-il has allowed Chinese troops to occupy northern North Korea right now." Tie those to a mylar balloon and — boom! — instant disgruntlement.

Of course, fomenting such xenophobic antipathy would mean US troops would be rather unwelcome in the former DPRK once reunification occurs, but a big part of the aforementioned plan is to keep them out of the North anyway.

China announces formation of Inner Cháoxiān Autonomous Region

Yep, it's all right here:

Several state-run Chinese banks and other multinational companies neared an agreement to invest about $10 billion to build railroads, harbors and houses in North Korea following their negotiations with Pyongyang's official Korea Taepung International Investment Group, according to Seoul's Yonhap news agency.

More than 60 percent of the $10 billion investment would come from the Chinese banks, Yonhap reported citing an unidentified source it described as knowledgeable about the situation at the North Korean investment agency.

No matter how you fry this up, it doesn't smell good. On the one hand, the talk of investment in railroads, harbors, etc., sounds like the PRC is creating their own little Manchukuo puppet state or something. At the very least, the need to secure their billions of dollars in infrastructure could give Beijing the excuse they need to send in the PLA should the DPRK ruling apparatus get ousted.

On the other hand, this time it looks like it's Beijing that's rewarding Pyongyang for its brinkmanship (as opposed to the Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo — the Axis of Feeble). Maybe this time, after the disastrous currency revaluation, the PRC leadership really is worried that the North could implode, and the last thing they want is a democratic and US-friendly government at their doorstep.