Welcome back, Carter!

Read all about President Jimmy Carter's third visit to Pyongyang on his blog:

We will be working hard in our few days in Pyongyang to learn as much as we can about the North Korean position. I hope we will be able to return to the US and Europe with a positive and constructive message. We have been told that our visit here is seen as helpful in establishing a positive atmosphere and that the people in both North and South expect a lot from us.

It is to my mind a tragedy that, more than 60 years after the Armistice that ended the Korean War, North and South Korea have not signed a peace treaty. My country, the United States, is South Korea’s guarantor, which creates enormous anxiety among the North Korean people and drains their political energy and resources.

Yup. The North Koreans were hoping Mr Carter would do two things for them: Bring food for them, and then carry water for them.

Anyway, we also get news (via Yonhap) that Kim Jong-il proposed to Carter that the leaders of the two Koreas hold a summit:

"He specifically told us that he is prepared for a summit meeting directly with President Lee Myung-bak at any time to discuss any subject directly between the two heads of state," Carter said, referring to a message he said he received from Kim hours earlier.

"Although we did not meet with the leader of North Korea, when we had already departed from our guest home, we were asked to come back to receive a personal message," Carter said in a press conference. ...

South Korea, which has repeatedly said it is open to a summit with North Korea, had yet to respond to the proposal. On Tuesday, South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan had downplayed the Elders trip, saying Pyongyang should rather speak to Seoul directly.

Kim Jong-il "sent word he is willing and the people of North Korea are willing to negotiate with South Korea or the United States or (the other powers involved in six-party talks) on any subject at any time and without any preconditions," Carter said.

GI Korea at ROK Drop had some clear opinions on the subject:

Kim Jong-il is just making this announcement because he knows President Lee won’t agree to it until the North Koreans apologize for sinking the Cheonan and shelling Yeonpyeong-do island last year. This make Kim Jong-il look like the reasonable party and he can let the useful idiots like Jimmy Carter and company to criticize President Lee for not agreeing to the summit. What President Lee should do is agree to the summit request but only if Kim Jong-il comes to Seoul for the summit like he promised the late former Korean President Kim Dae-jung.

I think GI Korea may be right that there is a strong possibility this is the Pyongyang regime's attempt to look like the reasonable one (and let's face it: both Tokyo and Pyongyang are often very good at playing off of Seoul in order to look like the rational one), but part of me believes this is sincere. That is, if President Lee agrees to meet with the Dear Leader, maybe KJI thinks he stands to gain something material from it.

Kim Jong-il, you've just succeeded at
subjugating your people into a cowering mass.
What will you do next?

"I'm going to EverLand!"

My recommendation would be to agree to meet, pushing for Seoul or Kanghwa-do (or some place north near Panmunjom) as the venue but not sticking to it if it has to be in Pyongyang. If KJI insists it must be in North Korea, make it Kaesŏng. Don't go to the capital.

The reason I say this is that we are at a crossroads. Kim Jong-il has had a major brush with death (i.e., his stroke and possibly cancer or at least a cancer scare) and he is smart enough to read the writing on the wall. If he really is grooming his son to take over — and if he is actually allowed to — it may be that he's being set up to be the kinder, gentler North Korea leader. Heck, Kim Jong-il himself may be poised to make a grand gesture.

At the very least, now is the time to start rebuilding personal relationships, allowing each side to start seeing the other as someone they can work with. It is in our best interest if North Korea starts to trust us.

But don't bring anything more expensive than a bottle of Chivas Regal. The most expensive item for this summit should be train fare for Lee and his entourage (if it's in North Korea) or three nights of accommodations at the Shilla Hotel (if it's in South Korea).

Another American detained in North Korea

Oh, God. Not another one. I hope this man (detained since November?!) isn't another friend of Robert Park — or Robert Park himself (oh, wouldn't that be a hoot?). I can just see a savvy kyopo religious zealot getting legal permission to enter the country under the auspices of conducting business, and then handing out Bibles or "What would Yesunim do?" bumper stickers.

Luckily for him, Jimmy Carter is already on his way to Pyongyang (AFP story here), so his time in the Pyongyang Palazzo may be short-lived.

UPDATE:
If this is something quite different from what Robert Park, Aijalon Gomes, or even Lisa Ling and Euna Lee, I will issue a retraction regarding my snarky suggestions above. But for now, all cases of Americans getting detained in North Korea have involved stupogance and/or a Moses complex.

UPDATE 2 (Thursday, April 14, 1:02 p.m.):
North Korea has released the name of the man they're holding, Jun Young Su. And he has apparently confessed what he did wrong.

Jimmy Carter on North Korea acting out

The "acting out" is my phrasing, not his, but he tries to make the case that with the recent revelation of the uranium program and now its shelling of Yŏnpyŏng-do Island, North Korea is trying to push Washington to negotiate with Pyongyang directly. And, he says, we should take them up on it:

North Korea insists on direct talks with the United States. Leaders in Pyongyang consider South Korea's armed forces to be controlled from Washington and maintain that South Korea was not party to the 1953 cease-fire. Since the Clinton administration, our country has negotiated through the six-party approach, largely avoiding substantive bilateral discussions, which would have excluded South Korea.

This past July I was invited to return to Pyongyang to secure the release of an American, Aijalon Gomes, with the proviso that my visit would last long enough for substantive talks with top North Korean officials. They spelled out in detail their desire to develop a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and a permanent cease-fire, based on the 1994 agreements and the terms adopted by the six powers in September 2005. With no authority to mediate any disputes, I relayed this message to the State Department and White House. Chinese leaders indicated support of this bilateral discussion.

North Korean officials have given the same message to other recent American visitors and have permitted access by nuclear experts to an advanced facility for purifying uranium. The same officials had made it clear to me that this array of centrifuges would be "on the table" for discussions with the United States, although uranium purification - a very slow process - was not covered in the 1994 agreements.

Pyongyang has sent a consistent message that during direct talks with the United States, it is ready to conclude an agreement to end its nuclear programs, put them all under IAEA inspection and conclude a permanent peace treaty to replace the "temporary" cease-fire of 1953. We should consider responding to this offer. The unfortunate alternative is for North Koreans to take whatever actions they consider necessary to defend themselves from what they claim to fear most: a military attack supported by the United States, along with efforts to change the political regime.

That was a might pretty speech. 'Cept that the problem is this: Do you trust the North to abide by any agreement they make? I don't. We've tried that before and they've proven time and time again that they see deceit as a useful tool. Mr Carter, I fear, is a tad naïve.

And speaking of the Yŏnpyŏng-do attack, Wangkon at The Marmot's Hole has a pretty good roundup of the economic fallout of the incident. Thanks for saving me the virtual legwork. The Marmot himself has some other good links, including the US's desire for a diplomatic response instead of a military one.

Habitat for Humongity [UPDATED]

Well, maybe now we know why Jimmy Carter agreed to head to Pyongyang to fish out Holy Roamer Aijalon Mahli Gomes: the Nobel laureate wanted permission to build houses in North Korea.

From US News & World Report:

Between hammering nails and raising walls in the chilly rain in front of a throng of news cameras, Carter took a moment to endorse another housing nonprofit, The Fuller Center for Housing, for a plan to build houses in North Korea, set to begin shortly. “They’ve already gotten permission from the government of North Korea to come in; they’ve already had a team there to assess the construction possibilities. This has to be a very flexible thing because as you know all of the houses in North Korea are owned by the government,” Carter said. “We’re just thankful that we’ll be able to get some houses built in North Korea for people in need.”

Say what? Carter worked out a deal to build houses for North Koreans? The very North Koreans who may have shoddy housing because their government is spending money developing nuclear technology and keeping its soldiers' bellies full? That North Korea?

Okay, while I'm happy that otherwise suffering North Koreans are getting decent housing (and who's going to build this stuff, President Carter?), I'm not so sure how I feel about handing over the keys to anyone connected to the Pyongyang regime who may then divvy up the housing based on loyalty and/or political favors.

I suppose if these are in rural villages, the chances of that are less likely, as those aren't exactly prime places for favored cadres to choose to live, but the peasants who end up getting even modest homes out in the sticks must, I would imagine, have to pass the loyalty test.

On the other hand, interaction with an American agency at a time when the DPRK may be looking for a pretext to open up may be a good thing, and I guess it's not like housing can be easily turned into food for the Army or anything (I'm still firmly in support of trying Plan B). I wonder also if this is on the up-and-up in terms of legality in dealing with countries like North Korea.

We'll have to see how this develops.

UPDATE:
chris of Destination Pyongyang provides some follow-up information:

But upon arrival I realized that I already knew this story; it has been at the planning stage for three years or more, and now seems to be coming to pass. This organization, The Fuller Center for Housing, a religious non-profit not unlike Habitat for Humanity, is building 25 energy efficient duplexes in the middle of a collective farm near Sunan Airport, Pyongyang.

The post includes some analysis chris put together after sifting through some links related to the Fuller Center project.

Welcome back, Carter.

Abstract:
Former President Carter may have met Kim Jong-il on his last trip. And may have offered him things. And talked about Aijalon Mahli Gomes's condition and stuff.

Wordy essay: 
When former President Jimmy Carter went over to North Korea to fish out Holy Roamer Aijalon Mahli Gomes, it was widely reported and generally assumed that he did not end up meeting Kim Jong-il.

Since it was always figured that high-profile visits by the likes of former President Bill Clinton or Carter are what the status-hungry DPRK craves, it was puzzling that KJI would take off just as Carter was arriving.

The Dear Leader, so the speculation went, had snubbed Carter when he chose instead to make a last-minute trip to northeast China (where, many believe, he was getting Beijing's approval for the ascension of his son, Kim Jong-un, but I, Kushibo, believe he was getting permission — or perhaps even orders — to do Chinese-style reforms). Either that, or KJI was afraid of the Carter Curse™.

So far, so good. Joshua at One Free Korea noted that the snub may have been a good thing, because it made it harder for Carter to offer anything other than a suitcase full of gourmet organic peanut butter in exchange for Mr Gomes's freedom.

But wait... Perhaps Mr Carter did in fact meet Kim Jong-il on this last trip. I hold this out as a possibility simply because Mr Carter, in a discussion at the Carter Center, didn't say one way or the other:

The 2002 Nobel Peace Prize winner would not say if he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. But he said he spoke with leaders who told him "they were eager to have peace talks that will lead to the denuclearization of the peninsula and a permanent peace treaty with the U.S. and South Korea." [AP via WaPo]

Why would this be a secret? If he didn't meet him, then he didn't meet him. But if he did meet him and there was something he wasn't to reveal (like KJI's physical condition?) then the "cannot confirm or deny" response would make sense. Not saying it's the only possibility, but it is a plausible reason.

And perhaps Carter did make some offers Pyongyang wouldn't refuse. I'm gleaning this from the title of the AP article ("Carter hopes prisoner release helps peace talks") and this quote:

"We didn't have any communication with North Korea, so they called and asked me to come over there to get Mr. Gomes," the Georgia Democrat said during a discussion at the Carter Center. "They said they would not let him go to anyone except me. Obviously, they wanted me to come back over there."

Reading between the lines, it seems quite likely that someone in the Pyongyang regime had Mr Carter come over to talk about returning to the denuclearization talks because they could extract a quid pro quo from him.

The talk also went into the conditions of Mr Gomes's incarceration:

Carter said doctors determined that Gomes, of Boston, had been treated "superbly" during his seven months in prison and that North Korean officials gave him his own prison cell. He also said Gomes was given his own hospital room in the country's capital, Pyongyang, after he tried to commit suicide, but he did not elaborate.

"Treated superbly"? Sounds a bit different from what some had speculated. I guess if it's not true, Mr Gomes himself might speak up eventually.

Conclusion:
See Abstract.

KCNA on Carter visit to Pyongyang

Things like this are a good read for what you glean about (a) what Carter might have given up in exchange for Aijalon Mahli Gomes and (b) what the DPRK regime thinks it may have gotten or will get from the visit. So here it is, straight from the mouthpiece:

Report on Jimmy Carter's Visit to DPRK

Pyongyang, August 27 (KCNA) -- Jimmy Carter, ex-president of the United States, and his party visited the DPRK from Aug. 25 to 27.

Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, met and had a talk with them.

He discussed with Carter the pending issues of mutual concern between the DPRK and the U.S.

Kim Yong Nam expressed the will of the DPRK government for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the resumption of the six-party talks.

In particular, he emphasized that it is the behest of President Kim Il Sung to denuclearize the peninsula.

Jimmy Carter made an apology to Kim Yong Nam for American Gomes' illegal entry into the DPRK and gave him the assurance that such case will never happen again on behalf of the government and the ex-president of the U.S. He asked Kim Yong Nam to convey to General Secretary Kim Jong Il a message courteously requesting him to grant special pardon to Gomes to leniently forgive him and let him go home.

After receiving a report on the request made by the U.S. government and Carter, Kim Jong Il issued an order of the chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission on granting amnesty to Gomes, an illegal entrant, pursuant to Article 103 of the Socialist Constitution of the DPRK.

Carter expressed deep thanks for this.

Earlier, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of State for Consular Affairs and his party visited Pyongyang from August 9 to 11 in connection with the case of Gomes and met officials of the Foreign Ministry and a relevant legal body of the DPRK.

The DPRK side took measures as an exception to ensure that they met Gomes three times and confirmed his condition. The U.S. side offered gratitude for these humanitarian measures.

The measure taken by the DPRK to set free the illegal entrant is a manifestation of its humanitarianism and peace-loving policy.

During the visit Carter and his party met and had an open-hearted discussion with the DPRK's foreign minister and vice foreign minister for U.S. affairs on the DPRK-U.S. relations, the resumption of the six-party talks, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and other issues of mutual concern.

They also enjoyed a performance given by the State Symphony Orchestra.

The Pyongyang visit paid by Jimmy Carter, ex-president of the U.S., provided a favorable occasion of deepening the understanding and building confidence between the two countries.

"At the behest of President Kim Ilsung"?! That's right: the Great Leader and eternal president, despite being dead for over a decade and a half, is still dictating policy.

There were two more perfunctory pieces, one reporting on an undisclosed gift (top two guesses: a $700K check or a bag of peanuts) which the KCNA says "Kim Jong-il was presented" (did they meet?), and the other one announcing Mr Carter's departure, when he was seen off by Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Kyegwan.

Carter waiting around for Kim Jong-il to come back

Apparently, our thirty-ninth president is doing the political equivalent of waiting around his smitten's porch, hoping to get a kiss goodnight after she gets home from a late night out with her friends and God knows who else.

Jimmy, you can't compete with Big Brother China, so don't even try. I hate to think what you might offer up out of desperation.

That's not a high-five. She was trying to slap your forehead.
Just be thankful rampant malnutrition has rendered 
that eighteen-year-old waif too short to reach. 

While we're at it, I just want to point out how fitting it is that someone initialed "JC" is off saving someone who himself my have a Jesus complex (well, that epithet is more fitting for the messiah-wannabe Robert Park, but Jimmy Carter didn't go and save RP, did he?).

Holy leader switcheroos, Fatman!

So everyone has been expecting former US President Jimmy Carter to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in order to secure the release of daytripper Aijalon Mahli Gomes by paying homage to Juche  making a quid pro quo deal with the Dear Leader  giving the Coifed One a photo-op to show how world leaders grovel in front of him  appealing to his humanity.

But lo and behold, just as Mr Carter is collecting his carry-ons after touch down in Pyongyang, we get news that Kim Jong-il is not even in North Korea! He's in China! That's right: China! I'll bet you didn't see that one coming, eh?

[UPDATE 2: With his son, Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong-un, no less! If there was ever a time for a brown parade.]

No doubt, the timing of this impromptu trip is motivated by fear (or flashbacks of being overshadowed like a Hobbit). For starters, KJI is probably genuinely afeared that any jaunt across the Yalu carries with it the risk of assassination and/or coup, so best to keep it on the down-low.

Second, it's already been irrefutably established that Jimmy Carter is a stone-cold killer. Within months of meeting the former peanut farmer, Kim Il-sung (KJI's dad) was dead (cue audio of Dubya saying, "He tried to kill my Daddy!"). Same with South Korean strongman Park Chunghee.

Could be a huge coincidence, but if I were the Dear Leader, I'd get the hell out of Dodge, too. Or at least send a Doppelgänger.

UPDATE 1:
Commenting at One Free Korea, James calls "death watch." And that reminded me that I forgot to add the more serious reason for the urgent trip: Maybe Kim Jong-il really may be much closer to the Pearly Gates (as if!) than we realize, and this emergency trip by L'il Kim is intended to make sure Big Brother China is on board with a continuation of a North Korean monarchy.

It's not too late to join my year-old KJI Death Pool.