Dozens of North Korean official executed in 2011 to consolidate power in preparation for Kim Jong-un's ascension?

An Amnesty International report highlighted in the Chosun Ilbo suggests widespread executions in Kim Jong-il's last year, reportedly to consolidate power for his son.

What is particularly chilling is that, among those who were supposedly executed, there were a large number that had participated in diplomatic efforts and discussions.

From the Amnesty International report, the relevant information on North Korea:

In North Korea, while the number of death sentences and executions reported in the media appeared to have declined in 2011, at least 30 executions were reported to have been carried out during the year. The figure however appears to be a gross underestimate of the reality of the death penalty in the country. No trials in North Korea meet international standards of fairness and due process, given the lack of independence of the judiciary and several problematic constitutional and legal provisions.

In January 2011 unconfirmed reports suggested that more than 200 officials had been detained by the State Security Agency in a move to consolidate the leadership succession of Kim Jong-un, raising concerns that some of them had been executed. In July 2011, Amnesty International received unconfirmed reports that North Korean authorities had either executed by firing squad or killed in staged traffic accidents 30 officials who had participated in inter- Korean talks or supervised bilateral dialogues with South Korea. Public executions, including within political prison camps, are believed to have taken place throughout the year. Public executions are a breach of North Korea’s own penal code. In addition to the number of “judicial executions”, Amnesty International believes that a high number of extra-judicial executions are taking place in the country.

On 10 March 2011, the Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions sent a communication to the government of North Korea regarding 37 reported cases of executions for economic crimes between 2007 and 2010.

I want to emphasize that, while this is plausible, it is also unconfirmed. One hopeful bit of thinking is that we've gotten many things wrong on North Korea in the past. DPRK intelligence is nobody's strong suit.

And I say "hopeful" not because I feel sorry for apparatchiki who may themselves be culpable for the deaths or torture of everyday North Koreans, but because I think the very act of killing formerly loyal party members in order to hold onto power is, in North Korea's case, a sign that we have a long way to go before North Korea reforms.

This systemic killing, as I've written before, is moving even the elite to the same place the hoi polloi find themselves: inching ever closer to a point where they are more likely to die if they do nothing than if they do something. That could be dangerous for the regime, but North Korea also seems to have a much higher threshold for such decimation than countries like, say, those caught up in the Arab Spring.

Then again, one thing to consider is that this was all under the late Kim Jong-il, not his son. Maybe there is a reformer trying to get out of that body. Maybe the several dozen who were executed were hardliners fighting against reform. I have no reason to believe that's true or not true, but I can speculate that, if it true, perhaps this bloodletting brings North Korea closer to being a state where the government is actually willing to try Chinese-style reforms (which at this point I think are our best hope for real change in North Korea).

...

Holy leader switcheroos, Fatman!

So everyone has been expecting former US President Jimmy Carter to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in order to secure the release of daytripper Aijalon Mahli Gomes by paying homage to Juche  making a quid pro quo deal with the Dear Leader  giving the Coifed One a photo-op to show how world leaders grovel in front of him  appealing to his humanity.

But lo and behold, just as Mr Carter is collecting his carry-ons after touch down in Pyongyang, we get news that Kim Jong-il is not even in North Korea! He's in China! That's right: China! I'll bet you didn't see that one coming, eh?

[UPDATE 2: With his son, Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong-un, no less! If there was ever a time for a brown parade.]

No doubt, the timing of this impromptu trip is motivated by fear (or flashbacks of being overshadowed like a Hobbit). For starters, KJI is probably genuinely afeared that any jaunt across the Yalu carries with it the risk of assassination and/or coup, so best to keep it on the down-low.

Second, it's already been irrefutably established that Jimmy Carter is a stone-cold killer. Within months of meeting the former peanut farmer, Kim Il-sung (KJI's dad) was dead (cue audio of Dubya saying, "He tried to kill my Daddy!"). Same with South Korean strongman Park Chunghee.

Could be a huge coincidence, but if I were the Dear Leader, I'd get the hell out of Dodge, too. Or at least send a Doppelgänger.

UPDATE 1:
Commenting at One Free Korea, James calls "death watch." And that reminded me that I forgot to add the more serious reason for the urgent trip: Maybe Kim Jong-il really may be much closer to the Pearly Gates (as if!) than we realize, and this emergency trip by L'il Kim is intended to make sure Big Brother China is on board with a continuation of a North Korean monarchy.

It's not too late to join my year-old KJI Death Pool.

Erosion of loyalty

So you live in a country characterized by deprivation, where workers steal what isn't nailed down if they can get away with it — and sometimes what is — in order to obtain food to survive, and if you're an official in this benighted land, you will be executed for that:

"Railway workers suffering from the food shortage stole copper and aluminum parts from locomotive trains that were in store for wartime and sold them as scrap metal. As a result, about 100 locomotives were scrapped," it claimed. "This was revealed in an inspection by the National Defense Commission in 2008." Kim Yong-sam was then taken to the State Security Department and executed in March the following year, it added.

I'm not sure the Pyongyang elite understand the ramifications of such actions. Let's assume for a moment that at least some of the apparatchiki have been appointed at least in part for their skill set. Executing them willy-nilly for things over which they have minimal control reduces the skill set needed to keep things running, at least what passes for running up north. (And I could say something similar for the tendency in South Korea for government ministers to resign when something bad happens down the food chain.)

Okay, so the DPRK elite may not really care that we down south are going to have a hard time finding political appointees without a whole lot of blood on their hands who know how things work when/if the northern regime eventually collapses, but surely they must care that they are eroding the potential for continued loyalty when Kim Jong-il eventually kicks the bucket.

It is a brown parade in the making, methinks, especially when a critical mass of nomenklatura realize they'd rather not spend another few decades at the whim of a hereditary figurehead without limits on his political power, where saying or doing the wrong thing — or even the right thing at the wrong time — can lead to their own demise.

 

Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for Ri.

I should have highlighted this story from a few days ago, about the death of Ri Jegang, the octogenarian apparatchiki shuffler (that's what it said on his myŏngham, I'm certain of it) who was responsible for setting up the transition of power from Dear Leader Kim Jong-il to his youngest son, Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong-un. He died in a car accident. Hmm...

From the New York Times:

As always, when dealing with reclusive North Korea, it is difficult for even longtime experts to divine exactly what is happening there, and the combination of the two recent deaths and the dismissal has fueled speculation that Mr. Ri might have been assassinated in a power struggle.

Some are proffering alternative scenarios, however:

But some analysts say the more plausible explanation is less nefarious: that Mr. Ri died while driving in possibly dangerous conditions.

Kim Jong-il, a night owl and heavy drinker, likes to call in his confidants to late-night policy meetings and drinking parties, said Lee Sang-hyun, a North Korea analyst at Sejong Institute just outside Seoul. These officials judge their standing by whether they are invited to the night sessions, and if so, how often.

“They get the order to attend in the middle of the night without a warning,” Mr. Lee said. By the time they set off to return home, they are often drunk, he added. Although top Korean officials generally retain drivers, Mr. Lee said the country’s leader often required officials to drive alone to the meetings to maintain secrecy.

Frankly, I'm not buying it. For starters, this speculation lays out a reason for others to drive to the meetings alone, but not for Mr Lee himself.

Anyway, I think we've seen a few too many eggs broken in this omŭraisŭ lately, most recently the septuagenarian who was billed as the one responsible for the Great Currency Obliteration of 2009, which ended up sparking unprecedented discord and anger among the peasantry.

Even Kim Jong-il's eldest son, Exuberant Progeny Kim Jong-nam, is apparently fearful he might end up kissing an assassin's bullet thanks to all the palace intrigue.

[left: Kim Jong-nam was once the host of EBS's "English Café. Exuberant Progeny Kim Jong-nam says good-bye to South Korean reporters in Macau.]

Now imagine for a minute that you're one of the higher-ranking apparatchiki among the nomenklatura. You're starting to realize that if you fail to support the right person, you don't end up getting fired: you get terminated, for real. And if you're aware that the Dear Leader's personality has been a bit off since the stroke, you may legitimately worry that the slightest perceived mistake may mean your demise.

Who can work effectively in that kind of environment? And if you're starting to worry that the twenty-something son will be another eccentric figure who has to be catered to, you might be thinking that this is the time for a brown parade... or worse.

So in conclusion, they're coming for you. What are you going to do about it?

Kim jong-il rumored to be in China — again

People who we guess should know believe that North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong-il arrived in Dandong, China, on his way to Beijing. He picked the day Chang Tonggŭn and Ko Soyŏng held the wedding of the century so nobody would notice.

Anyway, this is sort of a repeat, so I'll just direct you here.

Kim Jong-il now in China?

The Korean-language website of Yonhap is saying that North Korea's Dear Leader may have arrived in China, presumably on his way to Beijing. [UPDATE: Reuters has the story.]

Or at least, Rail Force One (the special train he rides around in because they won't let him past the "you must be at least this tall to go on this ride" sign at the airport he's afraid to fly) arrived in Dandong at 3:50 a.m.

If that's true, it's an interesting turn of events. First we had reports that KJI would be heading to Beijing to meet his sponsors by the end of March, to which I said it would be a good time for a brown parade (a coup), and then we had reports that second-ranking leader Kim Youngnam visited in his stead.

This is an awfully interesting time to leave the country. There is a threat of unrest from disgruntled masses and even local cadres angry about the Great Currency Obliteration of 2009, perhaps a growing unease among the apparatchiki with the idea of Kim Jong-il's inexperienced progeny (i.e., Kim Jong-un) taking over the reins of government, and an angry and decidedly Sunshine-averse (Moonshine-loving?) administration in Seoul that may be on the verge of saying the sinking of the Chonan was due to a North Korean mine, submarine, or torpedo, and responding in kind.

Is this the best time to leave the country? More than ever, Fat Boy Kim, your gangster trippin' days in Pyongyang may be over, one way or another. And by that I mean either coup or worse (worse for you, that is).

What's Chosŏnmal for Valkyrie?

UPDATE 2 (April 4, 2010):
Looks like he didn't go.

UPDATE 3 (May 3, 2010):
Is he really going this time?

[above: I'm really running out of fresh Kim Jong-il pictures.]