Friday, October 10, 2008

Will Obama be taken down by the "Bradley effect"?

I remember, when I was a kid, Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley running for governor in 1982 and losing to George "Duke" Deukmejian by about half a percentage point. In 1986 when he ran again against "Duke" he lost by a similarly small percentage. 

The interesting thing is that polls right before the 1982 election had Bradley winning by a comfortable margin.

Some Obama supporters fear the Illinois senator could succumb to the so-called "Bradley Effect." Like Obama, the late Bradley was Black, and it appears some people told pollsters they would vote for Bradley but eventually did not. Why would they do that? The theory behind the Bradley Effect is that people tell pollsters they will support the Black candidate (or Hispanic or female candidate) because they don't want to appear racist. 

Remember, kids, whoever you're going to vote for, this isn't over. A lot can happen in a month and you shouldn't take anything for granted. 

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