Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Maybe a landslide isn't a good thing

I may be alone among those who support the pragmatists in Korea (who now happen to be mostly "conservatives"), but I'm not exactly hoping for a Hannara Party landslide at the polls, as has been predicted.

Frankly, I think the most important Hannara-dang (or GNP, for Grand National Party) victory would be next year — the election of a pragmatic moderate-conservative who could repair relations with the United States, find a middle ground with Japan and return to a healthy bilateral relationship with that country even if someone like Aso is in charge, and let North Korea know that South Korea isn't going to just bend over and take it.

But my fear is that a Hannara sweep today might undermine that. If it's too easy, then first and foremost, the conservative party may get lazy. Worse even, they might get cocky, and start trying to do some of the obnoxious things that rich conservatives with a sense of entitlement and a disconnect from the average Kim and Lee do when they come to power.

A few tight races that are won as squeakers — or even lost by a very narrow margin — will make them realize the importance of keeping up the heat until 2007. Eye on the prize, and all that.

Also, a sweeping defeat by the Uri Party (also known as the OOP, or Our Open Party) will make them desperate. And when a political party is desperate, they do desperate things. A pounding today will make some of the lefties think they have nothing to lose, and so they will make impassioned appeals based on emotionally charged nationalism, which tends to override people's logical analysis of what is best in the long run. (This is by no means a trait exclusive to Korean voters; I would argue that this has played out in a number of elections in the US, as well, among other places).

Also, it is important to keep up the idea that the Uri Party in the Blue House is the incumbent party. In 2007, there may come a reckoning, and we don't want that to be muddied with perceptions that a locally powerful Hannara Party is also responsible for what ails everyone.

So here's to a mixed result! [Kushibo ducks.]

UPDATE:
Oh, crap! Landslide.

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