Friday, April 28, 2006

Korean economy in the top ten?

It seems that the falling dollar (or is it the rising won?) may have kicked Korea's GDP into the top ten. But, as the Donga Ilbo opines, any celebration is very muted.

The Donga Ilbo op-ed piece suggests that part of the reason for the subdued response is that the GDP got kicked up to $793 billion last year largely on the weakness of the dollar vis-à-vis the Korean won and many other currencies. I would submit that Korea has also invited bad luck by celebrating such milestones, especially ones starting with '10': not long after Korea cracked the coveted $10,000 per-capita GDP mark, the economy collapsed and declared "moribund" during the 1997 economic crisis.

Korea had stepped into the #11 spot only recently, and estimates of hitting #10 put the date at 2020. Perhaps Korea will slip back down to #11 again. In July, actual purchasing power will replace dollar-related value as the standard for measuring GDP, so the ranking are subject to change.

The op-ed piece gives an example of how the weakened dollar (which dropped 11% from 1144 won in 2004 to 1024 won in 2005) is skewing Korea's results. When measured in dollars, per-capita GNI (gross national income) shot up 14.8 percent, but when measured in won, the increase was only 2.7 percent (from 16.25 million won to 16.69 million won).

The op-ed also suggests that Korea's quality of life is not up to that of a top-ten country anyway, as reflected by a lack of jobs in a too inflexible labor market, ailing public schools, etc.

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