Monday, March 2, 2009

Kushibo, il oracolo

I was looking through writings from four years ago and ran across this prediction from June 2005 about the elections in December 2007. All in all, I'd say I'm a pretty good prophet:
South Korea’s current president is a left-wing nutjob with low popularity ratings and who doesn’t fully grasp the gravity of IR. In two years there will be an election in which a more left-wing candidate will not be elected. Either a conservative will be elected, the result of which will be the new ruling party making damn well sure that Washington knows how much the new Seoul government loves them. Or a pragmatic moderate to somewhat liberal will get elected, but they will clearly know how badly Roh has hurt the US-ROK alliance and they will be looking to patch things up.
Conservative elected? Check. Bend over backwards for Washington to show their love? Check. 

In the same post comments section, Won Joon Choe expressed concerns of a divided conservative party, which did come true (Lee Hoi-chang ran again) but did not derail Lee Myung-bak because Roh's progressives were just that discredited:
But what I worry is that the conservatives still would fail to field a single candidate. Park Gun-Hye has already gone off on her own before; so who knows what will happen if she’s not nominated as the GNP candidate? And Lee Myung-Bak and Sohn hak-Kyu may have independent base to run their own campaigns outside the GNP structure as well.
I also made some predictions here and here about how things could go on Okinawa and Guam. Not braggin', just saying people should pay attention to what I say. I have eerie powers. 

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