CIA recently conducted a "thorough" analysis on the health status of Kim Jong-il and concluded that the chance for Kim, who has been battling the complications of stroke and diabetes, to die in five years is 71 percent, Chosun Ilbo reported Saturday, citing an unnamed government source.
CIA analysis is based on Kim's age, medical history, physical state, the timing of his stroke and the following health deteriorations. The agency then compared them with medial data base in which it found cases of patients whose physical conditions were similar to those of Kim's, before proceeding comparison.For the analysis, CIA also relied on a number of data on Kim, including the recent photos of conducting site inspections, his brain scan image handed by South Korean intelligence agency, as well as testimonies of "ranking informants," according to the newspaper.
New reports from U.S. and diplomatic sources say that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il continues to decline and that he may have only one more year to live.Me? I'm disinclined to believe the "one year" report (also mentioned in this Korea Herald report), though it is plausible, and anyone who follows developments in Korea should be skeptical of the "home by Christmas" line.
A U.S. official who is familiar with the Korea situation but spoke on condition that he not be named said there are signs that Mr. Kim is still not well nearly a year after he suffered a stroke.
"Kim Jong-il certainly hasn't been in good shape since his stroke last year, and, as time wears on, it's increasingly clear that he's not where he was before experiencing his health setback," the official said.